Trump Era Could Erase US-Israel Divide

For over a year, the United States has provided unwavering support to Israel during its Gaza conflict while urging restraint behind the scenes. However, with Donald Trump’s return, this measured approach is expected to shift, though his penchant for deal-making could introduce unpredictability.

Unlike previous presidents, Trump has not committed to supporting an independent Palestinian state. His Republican Party has shown staunch pro-Israel sentiment, with some local offices distributing Israeli flags alongside Trump campaign signs. This contrasts with President Joe Biden, whose backing of Israel faced pushback from progressive voices within the Democratic Party.

Biden’s ambassadors to Israel were Jewish Americans who occasionally pressed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for moderation. In contrast, Trump’s pick is evangelical pastor Mike Huckabee, a former governor who views support for Israel as biblically significant. Other key figures in Trump’s foreign policy team include Senator Marco Rubio, known for his hardline stance on Iran, as secretary of state, and Representative Elise Stefanik, outspoken on pro-Palestinian protests, as ambassador to the United Nations.

Experts like Asher Fredman of the Misgav Institute anticipate that Trump will pursue an “America First” strategy that reduces U.S. military commitments while empowering Israel to confront its adversaries and strengthen ties with Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia. Fredman highlights the potential for significant advancements in regional cooperation and applying maximum pressure on Iran under Trump’s leadership.

Biden’s approach, on the other hand, has been characterized by cautious diplomacy. Following the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, Biden publicly embraced Netanyahu while privately expressing concern over the humanitarian toll in Gaza and urging restraint to avoid escalation in Lebanon. Despite his efforts, Biden only once leveraged U.S. military aid to Israel and ultimately refrained from enforcing aid restrictions despite unmet conditions for increasing assistance to Gaza.

Allison McManus from the Center for American Progress noted that Biden sought to maintain traditional U.S. support for Israel as a cornerstone of his legacy, avoiding risks that could disrupt the alliance. She contrasted this with Trump’s less conventional approach, suggesting that Trump’s willingness to apply pressure on Netanyahu might depend on the political landscape and the Israeli leader’s resistance to a ceasefire.

Aaron David Miller, a former State Department advisor, described Trump’s foreign policy as opportunistic and transactional, suggesting that appointees like Huckabee may serve symbolic roles while actual diplomacy remains focused on top officials. Miller also argued that even if Trump aimed to broker a Gaza deal, he would face similar challenges as Biden, including the survival of Hamas and the absence of a sustainable security framework.

Elie Pieprz of the Israel Defense and Security Forum observed that Trump’s return has already influenced regional dynamics, citing Qatar’s distancing from Hamas and a softer tone from Iran. Pieprz predicted that Trump would work to repair friction in the U.S.-Israel relationship, drawing a contrast with Biden’s more strained ties with Netanyahu. Trump, Pieprz concluded, is likely to frame his approach as “making the U.S.-Israel relationship great again.”