Trump Calls for Election Night Winner, But Outcome Unlikely

Former President Donald Trump has increased his calls for a quick declaration of a presidential winner shortly after polls close on Tuesday, even though the complete vote count won’t be finished by then.

Trump’s approach mirrors his 2020 declaration of victory in the early hours after Election Day, which led his allies to call for a halt to the counting process. Since then, Trump and many conservatives have consistently claimed, without evidence, that the 2020 election was stolen from him, criticizing the lengthy ballot-counting process in the U.S.

One of the reasons results won’t be immediate is that some Republican lawmakers in key states haven’t changed laws that prevent early processing of mail-in ballots, which delays final tallies. Additionally, in a close race, it naturally takes more time to finalize who has won. As election experts point out, ensuring an accurate and secure count is far more important than rushing to announce a winner the night polls close.

Trump’s demand also doesn’t consider the six time zones across the U.S., where votes on the West Coast are still being cast while polls close on the East Coast. David Becker, an election expert, notes that it’s unrealistic to expect officials across thousands of precincts to count ballots instantly, particularly with multiple-page ballots covering numerous races.

On Sunday in Pennsylvania, Trump reiterated his demand, saying that the results should be known “by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night.” His comments add to a narrative pushed by some conservatives that the U.S. should aim for the same swift results as countries like France and Argentina, which tally results quickly but only for a single election at a time. In contrast, the U.S. has nearly 10,000 jurisdictions counting various races simultaneously, contributing to the extended time frame.

Declaring a winner takes time, especially in close races. The Associated Press and other networks call races when the margin is secure, but in tight contests, every vote matters, leading to longer wait times. In 2018, for instance, the AP held off calling Florida’s Senate race until after a recount, though it is typically a state known for its fast tallying.

Complications also arise from the processing of provisional and overseas ballots, as well as checking mail ballots for legitimacy. Some states, like Arizona, allow voters time to correct mismatched signatures on mail ballots, delaying final numbers until several days after Election Day.

In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Republican lawmakers have resisted calls to allow pre-Election Day processing of mail ballots, creating a delay in reporting. This has led to the “red mirage” or “blue shift” effect, where early leads for Republicans are offset later by Democratic mail-in votes. Trump took advantage of this in 2020 by calling for vote counts to stop before these ballots were counted. This year, the trend may differ, with Republicans casting early votes in larger numbers.

Michigan, which recently removed restrictions on early mail ballot processing, hopes to have results out sooner. Officials like Michigan’s Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson urge the public to rely on the statements of election officials, rather than candidate claims.

Trump’s allies encourage him to declare victory as early as possible. Steve Bannon has argued that Trump should claim victory even before final results, echoing his stance from 2020. Former national security adviser Michael Flynn has warned of potential unrest if votes are still being counted the day after the election.

The Trump campaign is working to project confidence in an early lead, highlighting favorable polls and Republican turnout in early voting. However, early voting data only shows who has voted, not how they voted, and this doesn’t necessarily indicate a win for Republicans.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has targeted Republicans dissatisfied with Trump, and large numbers of voters in swing states who aren’t registered with either major party could shift the results. Only a complete count can reveal who actually won the election, so the public must wait until all votes are tallied.