Majdal Shams Strike: Facts and Unanswered Questions

Two days after a rocket hit a soccer field in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights, killing 12 children, many questions remain about the attack on the Druze town of Majdal Shams.

Israel has accused Hezbollah in Lebanon of intentionally targeting civilians, but Hezbollah has quickly denied any involvement in the attack.

With Israel promising retaliation for the highest civilian death toll in Israel-held territory since Hamas’ attack on October 7, diplomats are rushing to prevent an escalation that could lead to an all-out war after months of exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah along the border.

Weapons experts told The Associated Press that evidence suggests a rocket from Lebanon hit the field, but they also raised the possibility that the civilian casualties were unintentional.

**The Strike**

The strike created a crater about 2 meters wide on the artificial grass field where the children were playing. Burned-out bicycles and scooters, some electric with melted batteries, were scattered around. Walls of a nearby tent and shelter were marked with shrapnel.

Israel’s Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi stated that an Iranian-made Falaq rocket with a 53-kilogram warhead, belonging to Hezbollah, was used in the attack on the town of over 11,000 residents.

Israel released images of rocket fragments it claimed to have found, showing visible lettering that matched pictures of Falaq rockets also provided by the military. The AP could not verify that these fragments were found at the site. No ordinance debris was visible when AP reporters visited on Monday.

The Israeli military is investigating why its Iron Dome missile defense system did not intercept the rocket. While Iron Dome’s radar detected the launch, it did not release an interceptor missile, an Israeli military official told AP, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The military suggested the rocket’s flight time was too brief for interception. Hezbollah has been launching rockets from shorter distances during the conflict. The rocket was fired from just north of the Lebanese town of Shebaa, about 10 kilometers from Majdal Shams, according to the military.

The Iron Dome alert triggered sirens at 6:18 p.m., and Majdal Shams’ local council reported the rocket landed less than a minute later, leaving no time for the children to reach shelters.

“At very short distances, you don’t have enough time to operate the Iron Dome,” said Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank. Rockets fired from within 5 kilometers, taking 2-3 seconds to reach their destination, are nearly impossible to intercept, he added.

As a result, interception rates along the northern border are significantly lower than in central Israel, where Iron Dome batteries have more time to respond.

**Hezbollah’s Denial**

Hezbollah, Lebanon’s most powerful military and political force, quickly denied involvement in the attack, a rare move for the group, which typically claims responsibility for its attacks.

The rationale for Hezbollah to target a Druze community is unclear. Many Druze in the Golan see themselves as Syrian citizens, aligning with Hezbollah’s ally, Syria. An attack on them could damage Hezbollah’s standing, including among Druze in Lebanon, as the group seeks to maintain support during the conflict.

An overt intentional attack on civilians would represent a significant escalation in Hezbollah’s nearly daily exchanges with Israel. Hezbollah officials have stated they do not aim to broaden the war and will cease strikes when a cease-fire is reached in Gaza.

Hezbollah has claimed to target military and intelligence installations in its thousands of rockets fired since October. However, Hezbollah rockets have hit civilian areas. Before Saturday’s attack, strikes had killed 13 civilians and 22 soldiers in Israel. In Lebanon, Israeli attacks have killed more than 500 people, including 90 civilians.

Just before news of Saturday’s deadly attack broke, Hezbollah claimed at least two strikes, using Katyusha rockets and the larger Falaq-1, targeting a military base on Mount Hermon, about 3 kilometers north of Majdal Shams.

Hezbollah-allied TV stations and news outlets quickly denied the group’s involvement in the attack, suggesting Israel was looking for a pretext to expand its war against Lebanon and Hezbollah amid the most serious cease-fire efforts in Gaza.

**Was it an Error?**

Experts say the damage patterns are consistent with a rocket attack.

“The evidence on the ground, from the impact site, is more consistent with a rocket artillery strike of the type and size of the Falaq,” said Richard Weir, crisis and weapons researcher with Human Rights Watch.

The 53-kilogram warhead would explode on impact with a powerful high-explosive load, causing irregular fragmentation.

Weir said the damage did not appear consistent with a malfunctioning air defense missile, which would create regular-shaped fragments. There was no evidence of such fragmentation.

The crater’s shape and the direction in which a fence was blown down indicate the rocket came from the north, said Chris Cobb-Smith, a weapons analyst.

Without independent verification of the munition’s remnants, it is impossible to assign blame conclusively.

Weir suggested that a Hezbollah rocket aimed at the military position on Mount Hermon may have overshot its target, landing in Majdal Shams. Mechanical faults or human errors in estimating the distance could have caused the misfire.

“Such mistakes happen even with well-trained forces,” he said. “Given that this is an unguided rocket, it could have been an accident.”

**The Druze Stance**

Following Israel’s claim that Hezbollah was responsible for the blast, many Druze leaders in Lebanon, Syria, and Israel condemned what they saw as an attempt to sow division within their community. The Druze, who follow a faith that originated as an offshoot of Shiite Islam, are spread across these three countries.

About 300 residents of Majdal Shams protested Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit on Monday, accusing him of using the tragedy for political purposes.

Only 20% of Majdal Shams residents, in the Golan Heights annexed by Israel in 1981, have accepted Israeli citizenship. Many still consider themselves Syrian citizens.

“For sure, it was not targeting Majdal Shams. There are many Israeli military bases around the town. I expect this threat was directed towards them,” said Nabeeh Abu Saleh, a medic from the town who responded to the scene on Saturday.

Abu Saleh, with 25 years of experience as a medic, was unprepared for what he witnessed. Some body parts were found 100 meters from the explosion. One of his nephews was killed, another injured.

The military reported that Iron Dome sirens had sounded in Majdal Shams 30 times during the conflict. A few months ago, a rocket fell short of the town, according to Abu Saleh.

“We buried our children. We don’t want retaliation,” he said. “We have families in Lebanon, in Syria, and we have brothers here in Israel.”