Israel, along with the US, and allies of Iran are moving towards a full-scale conflict

Over the past week, the region has seen a surge in hostilities, with Israel executing an airstrike in Beirut that eliminated a high-ranking Hamas militant. In retaliation, Hezbollah has launched numerous rocket attacks into Israel. Concurrently, the United States conducted a military operation in Baghdad, neutralizing a militia leader, while Iran-supported rebels in Yemen have engaged in combat with the American Navy.

These actions are escalating the risk of the already devastating war in Gaza extending across the Middle East. In the longstanding standoff involving the U.S., Israel, Iran, and their respective allied militant groups, any of these parties might opt for full-scale war rather than conceding defeat.

Adding to the complexity, internal divisions within each group could fuel the conflict further. Hamas, for instance, may have anticipated its Oct. 7 attack drawing its allies into a broader conflict with Israel. On the Israeli side, there’s growing discourse about altering the dynamics in Lebanon, while the U.S. is focused on containing the conflict.

The intricate interactions in this situation increase the likelihood of misjudgments.

**Gaza as the Central Conflict Zone**

Hamas attributes its Oct. 7 attack, which triggered the Gaza war, to Palestinian resistance against Israel’s long-term dominance. Despite no evidence of direct involvement or prior knowledge from Iran, Hezbollah, or other allied groups, Israel’s intense military response in Gaza, heavily impacting the 2.3 million residents, prompted the Axis of Resistance to react.

The Palestinian cause resonates across the region, and for Iran and its allied groups, not supporting Hamas against Israel could potentially undermine their military alliance.

**Hezbollah’s Delicate Position**

Hezbollah, among Iran’s regional proxies, faces the most significant challenge. Ignoring Israeli attacks could weaken its perceived strength and reliability, while inciting a full-scale war might invite severe repercussions for Lebanon, already grappling with a severe economic crisis. Thus, Hezbollah has been performing measured strikes along the border, signaling defiance without provoking an all-out war.

**Possibility of American Involvement**

The U.S. has heightened its military presence in the region, signaling a warning against escalating the conflict. Despite this, Iran-aligned groups in Syria and Iraq have attacked U.S. bases, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted international shipping. While Iran claims these groups act independently, the U.S. is cautious about engaging in another Middle Eastern conflict.

Recent U.S. military actions, like the killing of an Iran-backed militia commander and Houthi rebels, add to the complexities, potentially demanding retaliation.

**Navigating the Conflict’s Resolution**

The ongoing conflict in Gaza, aimed by Israel to dismantle Hamas, raises questions about its feasibility. The U.S., being a key ally of Israel, plays a crucial role in potentially ending the offensive. The recent regional activities, including attacks on U.S. interests, might be tactics to draw the U.S. into diplomatic negotiations.

High-profile diplomats like U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other European leaders are in the region, attempting to quell the violence through diplomacy. However, the resolution might ultimately hinge on military actions rather than diplomatic efforts.