New Gaza Cease-Fire Talks Begin: Why is Peace So Hard to Achieve?

International mediators are making efforts to restart stalled cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, aiming to finalize a deal between the two sides. However, the chances of success seem slim.

The new round of talks is set to begin on Thursday, but Israel and Hamas have been considering an internationally-backed proposal for over two months. This proposal aims to end the ongoing 10-month war and secure the release of approximately 110 hostages still held in Gaza.

Despite ongoing indirect talks, there has been little substantive progress, and new terms introduced have further complicated the negotiations. Additionally, Hamas has yet to confirm its participation in the upcoming discussions.

Meanwhile, the conflict in Gaza continues, hostages remain in captivity, and concerns about a potential regional war involving Iran and Hezbollah have grown. The recent killing of Hamas’ top leader in Tehran, allegedly by Israel, has added further uncertainty to the negotiations.

 

The Proposed Cease-Fire Deal

On May 31, U.S. President Joe Biden outlined an Israeli cease-fire proposal, describing it as a “road map” for a lasting truce and the release of hostages. The original plan consisted of three phases:

1. **First Phase:** A six-week complete cease-fire, Israeli withdrawal from densely populated areas of Gaza, and the release of certain hostages (including women, the elderly, and the wounded) in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. During this period, Palestinian civilians would return home, and humanitarian aid would increase.

2. **Second Phase:** The release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza. The temporary cease-fire would become permanent.

3. **Third Phase:** A major reconstruction effort in Gaza to rebuild the region from the devastation caused by the war.

 

Sticking Points

Despite Biden’s backing, the proposal has not led to a breakthrough, with the two sides seemingly growing further apart. Key issues include:

– **Cease-fire Extension:** Israel is concerned that Hamas could prolong negotiations indefinitely without a resolution.
– **Hamas’ Fears:** Hamas worries that Israel might resume the war after the release of the most vulnerable hostages, especially given recent statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
– **Additional Demands:** Israel has added new demands, such as maintaining control of the Philadelphi corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt, which Hamas rejects. Israel also seeks veto power over the Palestinian prisoners to be released and a list of living hostages, both of which Hamas opposes.

 

Complicating Factors

The talks were further disrupted last month when a blast killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, an attack widely attributed to Israel. This assassination, along with the killing of a Hezbollah commander in Beirut, has heightened tensions and shifted international focus away from the Gaza conflict. The threat of a broader regional war has led to increased diplomatic efforts and U.S. military presence in the area.

Both Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar have reasons to continue the war. Netanyahu faces pressure from his far-right coalition against agreeing to a cease-fire, while Sinwar, following Haniyeh’s killing, may fear for his own safety if the war ends.

In summary, while international mediators are pushing for a cease-fire, significant obstacles remain, and the likelihood of a breakthrough appears uncertain.