2029 Earth impact risk from asteroid Apophis unveiled

Astronomers have updated their assessment of the risk posed by Apophis, an asteroid once deemed one of the greatest threats to Earth. Initially, there was a slight concern that Apophis could collide with Earth in either 2029 or 2036. Recent precise measurements of its trajectory have now confirmed that Apophis will pass within 40,000 kilometers of Earth in 2029 but is not expected to impact our planet barring any unforeseen changes to its orbit caused by another celestial object.

The size of Apophis, at 1,110 feet, means that while it wouldn’t lead to an extinction event like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs, it could still cause significant destruction. This has kept scientists keenly interested in its path, especially as it will make a notably close approach on April 13, 2029, missing Earth by just 37,399 kilometers.

The potential for another object to alter Apophis’s course, similar to how NASA’s DART mission impacted asteroid Dimorphos, remains a topic of study. Benjamin Hyatt, an undergraduate at Waterloo University, and Professor Paul Wiegert from Western University have analyzed the trajectories of over 1.3 million known asteroids to evaluate any risk of them intersecting with Apophis. Despite the hypothetical risk of such a collision redirecting Apophis towards Earth, their findings indicate no such threat currently exists.

The duo used comprehensive computer simulations of the Solar System to track the movements of these asteroids and concluded there’s no chance of Apophis colliding with another space object in the foreseeable future.

Despite the diminished threat, scientific interest in Apophis continues. The OSIRIS-APEX mission, previously known as OSIRIS-REx, is focused on studying Apophis among other asteroids. This mission has notably visited Bennu, considered currently the most dangerous asteroid to Earth, and returned a substantial sample from it.

“Apophis has been a subject of intrigue since its discovery in 2004, initially posing the first credible asteroid threat to our planet,” noted Wiegert. Although it is now confirmed to miss Earth, the asteroid continues to captivate astronomers, underscoring the importance of vigilance in monitoring near-Earth objects.