Why Hezbollah and Allies Are Steering Clear of Israel-Iran Clash

As Israel and Iran exchange direct strikes in one of their most intense confrontations to date, key Iranian allies in the region have largely stayed on the sidelines. Hezbollah in Lebanon and powerful militia groups in Iraq have refrained from significant involvement despite the deepening hostilities and the use of Iraqi airspace by Israeli forces.

Their restraint signals a broader shift in the posture of Iran’s traditional partners, shaped by military setbacks, internal political calculations, and a reassessment of strategic priorities following nearly two years of continuous conflict in the region.

The Evolving Structure of Iran’s Regional Alliance

Hezbollah was established in the early 1980s with the backing of Iran and has long been considered Tehran’s primary line of defense against Israeli aggression. Originally formed as a resistance movement against Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon, it has grown into a well-armed and politically influential force within Lebanon and across the region. For decades, it served as the centerpiece of what was often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance,” a bloc that includes Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

At its peak, Hezbollah claimed to control an arsenal of approximately 150,000 missiles and a fighting force of over 100,000 personnel. Following the Hamas-led attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s ensuing military campaign in Gaza, Hezbollah opened a second front by launching rocket fire across the Lebanese-Israeli border. This led to an intense conflict, particularly in September, during which Israel conducted heavy bombardments that reportedly killed Hezbollah’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah and other high-ranking figures. Much of the group’s missile stockpile was destroyed before a U.S.-brokered ceasefire ended the hostilities in November.

Since then, Hezbollah has sustained a steady decline in capacity, worsened by the loss of crucial weapons supply routes from Syria after a surprise offensive by Syrian rebel forces unseated the Assad government in December. These developments have significantly limited Hezbollah’s operational capability and influence.

Strategic Restraint from Militia Groups

Despite the escalation between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah’s current leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has issued statements condemning the Israeli airstrikes and mourning the deaths of senior Iranian officials. However, he has stopped short of signaling any imminent retaliation or direct involvement in the ongoing conflict.

Similarly, Iran-aligned militias in Iraq have opted for a cautious response. Kataib Hezbollah, a leading group separate from Lebanon’s Hezbollah, issued a statement criticizing Israel’s use of Iraqi airspace for launching attacks. The group called on the Iraqi government to remove foreign military presence — a clear reference to U.S. forces — but did not issue threats or announce plans for military action. Iraq itself has lodged a formal complaint with the UN Security Council over the incident.

Analysts suggest that both Hezbollah and Iraqi militias are recalibrating their roles. Military researcher Andreas Krieg observed that Hezbollah’s strategic importance has diminished significantly due to recent battlefield losses and disrupted logistics from Syria. Meanwhile, some Hezbollah members reportedly believe they were drawn into past conflicts primarily to serve Iran’s regional agenda, leading to a growing preference for a Lebanon-focused strategy.

While the group may still be drawn into broader conflict depending on future developments, current signals indicate that it is prioritizing national concerns over regional confrontations.

Shifting Power and Pragmatism in Iraq and Yemen

Unlike Hezbollah, many of Iraq’s pro-Iran militias operate within the formal security apparatus of the Iraqi state. Over time, they have gained influence both politically and economically. According to regional experts, these groups have little incentive to jeopardize their position by engaging in a war that could draw Israeli retaliation or destabilize the current political equilibrium in Baghdad.

In contrast, Yemen’s Houthi movement has been more active. The group has launched periodic missile attacks targeting Israel and shipping routes in the Red Sea, positioning itself as a vocal participant in the anti-Israel bloc. However, their geographic isolation and limited capabilities mean their operations remain largely symbolic rather than strategically disruptive.

Despite Iran’s longstanding influence over these groups, the current crisis reveals a shift in how the “Axis of Resistance” functions. Rather than acting in coordinated unison, the affiliated movements are now responding based on individual interests, vulnerabilities, and survival calculations.

Krieg noted that the earlier assumption of Iran’s total control over its regional allies was an oversimplification. He argued that the network is no longer a coherent axis but rather a decentralized collection of actors with varying agendas and capacities.