What’s at Stake in the Middle East if Trump Wins a Second Term

President-elect Donald Trump’s second term will likely keep the Middle East as a high priority, given his previous record in the region. In his first four years, Trump made history by choosing Saudi Arabia as his first overseas visit, aimed for a comprehensive peace deal between Israel and Palestine, fostered Israel’s integration with neighboring states, and heightened pressure on Iran.

However, the region has evolved significantly since Trump left office in 2021, and local leaders are closely monitoring how he will approach these shifts. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Trump’s return, viewing it as a renewed commitment to the Israel-U.S. alliance. Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, also expressed their congratulations, emphasizing their shared ambitions for progress.

In contrast, Iran downplayed the impact of the U.S. election, stating that its policies toward America remain unchanged. Key areas Trump may focus on include the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and broader regional integration for Israel. Analysts suggest Trump may push Netanyahu to quickly resolve these wars, signaling that he would prefer these issues settled before his inauguration. Trump has previously expressed impatience with prolonged conflicts, suggesting that Israel should conclude its military actions swiftly.

Trump has historically shown little interest in the Palestinian cause, instead taking actions that were largely favorable to Israel, such as recognizing Jerusalem as its capital and acknowledging Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. This stance has fueled concerns that Trump might support Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank, which could challenge hopes for a two-state solution.

The Abraham Accords, facilitated by Trump, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries, a move that shifted attention away from Palestinian independence. Some believe Trump’s return could expand these accords and reshape the Middle East following the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Trump’s approach to Iran is expected to reintroduce his “maximum pressure” strategy, aimed at curbing Tehran’s influence and nuclear ambitions. This policy would build on his previous administration’s actions, such as reimposing sanctions and ordering the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. Iran, however, has grown more assertive, increasing uranium enrichment and bolstering its support for regional militias.

Trump’s potential involvement could mean an empowered Netanyahu, who might see an opportunity to act decisively against Iran. Trump might even support a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities before formally taking office, a move that could create high regional tensions in the final months of Biden’s term.

Finally, Trump’s team will have to consider recent U.S. intelligence claims of an Iranian assassination attempt against him, which Tehran has denied. While Trump might personally seek a negotiation breakthrough with Iran, his administration may lean toward a firmer stance, likely focusing on weakening Iran’s government rather than reaching mutual agreements. A “maximum support” approach for Iranian citizens could signal an intensified effort toward regime change, making renewed negotiations less probable.