The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has escalated tensions throughout the Middle East, raising concerns about a potential clash involving regional and global powers. The hostilities have mainly involved back-and-forth strikes between Iran-supported militias and the United States, Israel, and their allies. However, recent direct involvement by both Iran and the U.S. has intensified fears of this proxy war evolving into a direct conflict.
To date, the U.S. and Iran have refrained from direct confrontation. The U.S. has targeted Iran-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, while groups linked to Iran have attacked American personnel in Iraq and Syria. Iran has also launched strikes against groups it accuses of being anti-Iranian in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan, leading to retaliatory strikes from Pakistan.
Iran, long opposed to the U.S. military presence in the region, has developed a network of Islamist, anti-Western, and anti-Israel militias. These groups, including Yemen’s Houthi rebels, have become increasingly hostile, disrupting key international waterways and affecting global trade. Iran has also established ties with and supported Hamas, the organization responsible for initiating the conflict with Israel on October 7.
The U.S., attempting to reduce its involvement in the Middle East, finds itself increasingly drawn back into the region, having already had over 30,000 troops there before the war. Since the conflict’s onset, the U.S. has bolstered its military presence, deploying approximately 1,200 service members, as well as additional personnel on Navy carrier strike groups and a Marine Expeditionary Unit.
In areas like Iraq and Syria, the U.S. military’s presence intersects with that of Iran and its allies. This overlap heightens the risk of direct conflict between the two sides.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah, an Iran-backed paramilitary force, is one of Iran’s most effective regional proxies. Based near the Israel-Lebanon border, Hezbollah has engaged in exchanges of fire with Israel since the Gaza war began. The group, closely aligned with Hamas, possesses a substantial arsenal of missiles, rockets, and mortars.
In Iraq, Iran exerts significant influence over several Shiite militias tied to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Kataib Hezbollah and others. These groups have conducted numerous attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, prompting American retaliatory airstrikes.
The U.S. maintains a smaller troop presence in Iraq compared to the peak of the Iraq war, with approximately 2,500 forces stationed at various bases.
In Syria, Iran’s direct presence supports the regime of Bashar al-Assad, with IRGC personnel and Iranian-backed militias actively involved in the conflict. The U.S. maintains a force of 800 personnel in Syria, primarily in the Eastern Syria Security Area, supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces and opposing the Syrian regime.
In Yemen, the Houthi rebels, central to the proxy conflict between Iran and the U.S., have intensified their attacks on Red Sea shipping, purportedly in retaliation against Israel for the Gaza war. The U.S. military operates warships in the Red Sea and has conducted strikes against Houthi targets.
In the Gaza Strip, Hamas, the militant group, has been a focal point of the conflict. The group, established in 1987, is believed to have had around 30,000 fighters before the war and has received support from Iran.
In the Gulf Arab states and Turkey, while direct involvement in the Israel-Hamas war has been limited, these nations have felt vulnerable due to past attacks by Iran-linked groups. The U.S. maintains significant military deployments in these regions, with substantial forces in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Jordan. Turkey also hosts U.S. military personnel at Incirlik Air Base.
This complex web of regional hostilities, overlapping military presences, and proxy conflicts underscores the fragile and volatile nature of the current situation in the Middle East.