Uruguay vs Peru Prediction, Preview, News, Odds: 5/9/2025

Uruguay’s campaign for the 2026 World Championship has been defined by resilience and tactical innovation under Marcelo Bielsa. Currently sitting third in the CONMEBOL standings, La Celeste have already made headlines by defeating both Argentina and Brazil earlier in qualifying. Even with recent setbacks—goalless draws against Paraguay and Venezuela—Uruguay remain the region’s most prolific scorers and boast a defensive record that includes more than eight hours without conceding.

Key players are returning at the right time. Darwin Núñez, back from a suspension, adds firepower to the attack, while Federico Valverde continues to pull the strings in midfield. Bielsa’s blend of youthful energy and experienced leadership has kept Uruguay firmly in the mix for direct qualification.

Peru’s Struggles

Peru, by contrast, face an uphill battle. Anchored at the bottom of the standings with just seven points from 12 matches, their qualifying hopes are hanging by a thread. Inconsistency, coupled with a spate of injuries, has undermined their campaign. Former coach Jorge Fossati, appointed in late 2023, was dismissed earlier this year after failing to reverse the team’s decline, leaving the Blanquirroja in transition once again.

The squad remains depleted: midfielders Yoshimar Yotún and Renato Tapia are still unavailable, while Gianluca Lapadula and Luis Advíncula have also been ruled out. Veteran Horacio Calcaterra has been recalled in a bid to steady the midfield, but Peru’s biggest weakness persists—a blunt attack that has managed only three goals in the entire qualifying cycle.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Dynamics

History does not favor Peru. They have failed to beat Uruguay in nine of their last eleven encounters, though they did manage a surprise 1–0 victory in their most recent meeting thanks to Miguel Araujo’s late winner. However, the Estadio Nacional in Lima has not been a fortress, with Peru losing two of their last three home qualifiers.

Uruguay, despite their overall strength, have not always enjoyed success in Lima, with just one victory in their last five visits. This suggests that while Bielsa’s side are favorites, the matchup may be closer than the standings imply. The tactical battle will be key: Uruguay’s trademark high press could overwhelm Peru’s cautious, possession-based buildup, but gaps left by Bielsa’s aggressive system may leave openings for counterattacks or set pieces.

Prediction

On paper, Uruguay’s form, depth, and tactical structure give them the edge. Núñez’s return provides a much-needed cutting edge, and Valverde’s control in midfield should dictate the tempo. Peru might carve out a chance from a set piece, but their lack of attacking options and ongoing instability make a comeback unlikely.

Expect a tight contest with limited scoring opportunities. Both sides have been involved in low-scoring qualifiers recently—six of Peru’s last matches ended under 2.5 goals, and seven of Uruguay’s last nine have followed the same pattern. Uruguay should edge this encounter through efficiency and composure, securing another vital three points on the road to 2026.

Prediction: Uruguay 1–0 Peru