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The much-anticipated CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifier between Uruguay and Argentina is set to take place at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo on March 22, 2025, at 00:30 local time. This high-stakes match marks the 13th round of the qualification campaign and carries significant implications for both teams as they look to secure a spot in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Currently, Argentina leads the table with 25 points, while Uruguay closely trails in second place with 20 points. With both teams well-positioned for automatic qualification, a victory here could provide a crucial boost as the competition intensifies. Uruguay will aim to leverage their home advantage, while Argentina will seek to maintain their dominance in the standings despite several key absences.
Uruguay Overview
Uruguay, led by the experienced Marcelo Bielsa, has enjoyed an impressive qualification campaign. With 20 points from 12 matches (5 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses), they have established themselves as one of the most consistent teams in the tournament. Their latest result—a 1-1 draw away to Brazil—reinforced their resilience against South America’s elite.
At home, Uruguay has been particularly dominant, maintaining an unbeaten record with 4 wins and 2 draws. Estadio Centenario remains a fortress, with passionate home support playing a crucial role in their performances.
Tactical Approach and Squad Strength
Bielsa’s approach focuses on relentless pressing, quick transitions, and high-intensity attacking football. This strategy has troubled many opponents, and Uruguay will look to impose their energetic playing style against Argentina.
Key Players to Watch for Uruguay
- Federico Valverde – The Real Madrid midfielder has been instrumental in linking defense and attack.
- Darwin Núñez – The Liverpool forward’s pace and physicality will be key in breaking down Argentina’s defense.
- Ronald Araújo – The Barcelona defender will be tasked with keeping Argentina’s attack at bay.
- Agustín Álvarez – The in-form Elche forward returns to the national squad after a three-year absence and could provide a crucial attacking spark.
With a blend of youth and experience, Uruguay will be confident in their ability to take points off Argentina, especially given their strong home record.
Argentina Overview
The reigning World Cup winners continue to set the pace in South America, with 8 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their qualification campaign. However, Lionel Scaloni’s squad faces a major setback heading into this fixture, as Lionel Messi has been ruled out due to a muscle injury sustained during Inter Miami’s MLS match against Atlanta United.
Messi’s absence will be a significant blow, as Argentina’s attack often revolves around his creativity. However, the team has shown they can adapt, with other key players stepping up when needed.
Recent Form and Tactical Adjustments
Argentina’s most recent fixture saw them secure a 1-0 win over Peru, but their performances have been inconsistent, with two losses in their last five matches. Without Messi, Scaloni may shift towards a more defensive approach, relying on structured play and counter-attacks.
Key Players to Watch for Argentina
- Julián Álvarez – The Manchester City forward will be Argentina’s primary attacking threat in Messi’s absence.
- Rodrigo De Paul – The Atletico Madrid midfielder will play a crucial role in controlling the tempo of the match.
- Cristian Romero – The aggressive center-back will be key in dealing with Uruguay’s fast-paced attack.
- Thiago Almada & Nico Paz – Both young talents have been included in the squad as Scaloni looks to build for the future.
Argentina’s ability to cope without Messi will be the major talking point heading into this clash, and Scaloni’s tactical flexibility will be put to the test.
Head-to-Head and Recent Encounters
This historic rivalry has been closely contested in recent years, though Argentina has enjoyed a slight edge.
Last Five Meetings:
Notably, in their most recent encounter in November 2023, Uruguay secured a 2-0 away victory against Argentina, marking a rare triumph on Argentinian soil. This result will give Uruguay added confidence heading into the rematch.
Recent Form in All Competitions:
These numbers suggest that Uruguay has been the more consistent team, while Argentina has struggled for form in recent outings.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Match
- Messi’s Absence and Argentina’s Attacking Plan. With Messi sidelined, Argentina will need a different approach to breaking down Uruguay’s defense. Will Scaloni opt for a more counter-attacking setup, or will he place faith in young talents like Almada and Paz?
- Uruguay’s Home Advantage. Estadio Centenario has been a fortress for Uruguay, and their unbeaten home record in the qualifiers makes them formidable opponents.
- Bielsa vs. Scaloni: Tactical Battle. Bielsa’s aggressive pressing system will go up against Scaloni’s structured, possession-based style. The team that executes its game plan more effectively could emerge with a crucial result.
- Defensive Solidity. Both teams have been solid defensively throughout the campaign. A low-scoring affair with few clear-cut chances could be on the cards.
Prediction
With Uruguay’s strong home record and Argentina missing key players, this match is shaping up to be an intense tactical battle. Both teams are defensively sound, and with so much at stake, neither side will want to take unnecessary risks.
While Argentina remains a formidable force, Uruguay’s momentum and home advantage could tilt the balance in their favor. That said, given the quality of both sides, a draw seems the most likely outcome.
Prediction: Uruguay 1-1 Argentina
Recommended Betting Predictions and Odds
Match Outcome
- Prediction: Draw
- Best Odds:
Given the competitive nature of this rivalry and recent form, a draw seems like a strong possibility. Both teams are defensively solid and will likely be cautious in their approach.
Both Teams to Score
With Uruguay’s disciplined backline and Argentina’s history of grinding out results, a low-scoring affair is a likely scenario.
