Ukraine Strikes on Russia Challenge Putin’s War Narrative

Belgorod, a Russian city near the border, has become accustomed to the sound of air raid sirens following a Ukrainian missile strike during the New Year’s holiday weekend, which resulted in numerous casualties and injuries.

This month, a Ukrainian drone caused a significant explosion at a large fuel export terminal near St. Petersburg in the Baltic Sea, disrupting Novatek’s operations for days. Further attacks in the Black Sea port of Tuapse and the Volga River city of Yaroslavl targeted major Russian refineries, although no damage was reported in Yaroslavl. Other strikes have hit a gunpowder factory in Tambov and military facilities in Bryansk, Smolensk, and Tula.

These attacks are undermining President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to portray Russia as largely unaffected by the nearly two-year war. Michael Kofman, a military expert, noted the increase in Ukrainian strikes against Russian infrastructure and cities.

Amid preparations for the presidential election in March, Putin faces the challenge of maintaining normalcy while dealing with the war’s growing visibility in Russia. Liberal politician Boris Nadezhdin’s presidential campaign, focusing on ending the war, has gained public support. Additionally, some soldiers’ wives have demanded their husbands’ discharge, and protests have occurred despite restrictions.

The December 30 strike on Belgorod, which killed 25 people and injured over 100, has heightened Russian public awareness of the war. Residents recounted seeing gruesome injuries and bloodshed. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov mentioned evacuating hundreds of people, including children, due to fear and safety concerns.

As a result of the shelling, nearly 600 apartments and many homes were damaged, and over 500 cars were hit by shrapnel. Protective measures like reinforced bus stops are being implemented, and schools near the border have shifted to online classes.

Belgorod has experienced previous incidents related to the war, including drone strikes and a bomb explosion in April 2023. Putin described the December 30 shelling as a desperate act by Kyiv and vowed retaliation.

Ukrainian officials rarely comment on strikes within Russia but assert their right to counter Moscow’s aggression. Despite Russia claiming to target only military sites in Ukraine, there’s evidence of heavy civilian casualties.

Russian hawks see the Belgorod incident as a catalyst for escalating the war, with nationalist Alexander Dugin advocating for a broader mobilization. Russian military bloggers emphasize the need for better surveillance to counter Ukrainian long-range capabilities.

Winter has frozen much of the frontline fighting, but Ukraine’s strikes inside Russia have tested Moscow’s defenses. The Institute for the Study of War noted that these attacks could increase pressure on Russia’s air defenses.

Ukraine’s response to Russian attacks on its power grid last year, which involved quick repairs and sourcing spare parts, contrasts with Russia’s current challenges in repairing damage to its refineries. Sergey Vakulenko, an energy analyst, pointed out the difficulty in replacing damaged components due to sanctions, suggesting serious consequences if attacks on Russian oil refineries continue.