Somerset vs Surrey T20BLAST Preview, Prediction and betting odds: 30/5/2025

The 2025 edition of the Vitality T20 Blast is set to begin on May 29, featuring over 120 group stage matches and seven knockout games. Somerset will launch their campaign on May 30 at the Cooper Associates County Ground in Taunton, facing Surrey in what will be a rematch of last season’s semi-final encounter. The match begins at 11 PM local time.

Somerset enters the tournament aiming to build on a strong performance in recent seasons, having claimed the title in 2023 and reaching the final in 2024 before falling to Gloucestershire by eight wickets. During last year’s campaign, Tom Banton was the standout performer with the bat, compiling 515 runs, while Ben Green topped the bowling charts with 21 wickets. However, Green will not be available for selection this season.

Surrey, who won the inaugural T20 Blast title in 2003, have since failed to lift the trophy again. Despite topping the South Group last year with nine victories, their run ended in the semi-finals at the hands of Somerset. Batting first, Surrey managed 153 for 9, with Dom Sibley contributing 48 runs. Somerset chased down the target comfortably, thanks to an unbeaten 62 from James Rew and 78 from Sean Dickson in a 144-run fourth-wicket partnership.

Somerset Overview

Somerset’s top order is expected to be led by Tom Kohler-Cadmore and Will Smeed. Kohler-Cadmore scored 386 runs in the previous season with a strike rate of 140, including a team-high 23 sixes. Smeed impressed with a strike rate of 175.67 while adding 275 runs. Tom Abell, who delivered 352 runs at a strike rate of 139, will likely occupy the number three position.

The middle order will feature experienced hands like Lewis Gregory, Sean Dickson, and possibly Tom Banton, who is returning to the side and may replace James Rew. Gregory remains a pivotal figure, contributing both with bat and ball. He notched 216 runs last season and also claimed 19 wickets. His half-century in the 2024 final highlighted his importance in crucial matches.

Craig Overton is set to lead Somerset’s pace attack alongside Josh Davey and Matt Henry. Overton took 9 wickets across 12 matches last season, while Davey picked up 8 wickets in 7 innings. Henry, who was instrumental in the 2023 title run with 31 wickets, returns to bolster the bowling unit. Somerset has also added Riley Meredith, providing further depth. Migael Pretorius and Jack Leach are expected to complete the lineup.

The predicted playing XI for Somerset: Tom Banton, Lewis Gregory, Tom Kohler-Cadmore, Will Smeed, Sean Dickson, Tom Abell, Craig Overton, Josh Davey, Matt Henry, Migael Pretorius, Jack Leach.

Surrey Overview

Surrey will look to start their season strongly after a disappointing end in the previous campaign. Dan Lawrence and Dom Sibley are expected to open the innings. Lawrence had a subdued 2024, scoring just 125 runs at an average of 12.5, while Sibley added 269 runs at a strike rate of 134. England international Ollie Pope is likely to bat at number three, having contributed 224 runs last season.

Jason Roy’s inclusion offers a power-hitting option at the top of the order. Jamie Smith, who will take the gloves, stands out in the middle order with a strike rate of 203, having scored 285 runs in 8 innings. Laurie Evans adds further experience, while captain Sam Curran will contribute as an all-rounder. Curran played five matches last season, amassing 237 runs, including a century.

The bowling responsibilities will fall to Tom Curran, who was the side’s top wicket-taker last year with 19 wickets at an average of 13.68. He also scored 140 runs at a strike rate of 157. Daniel Worrall and James Clark will support him in the pace department, with Clark having taken 11 wickets at an average of 19. The squad also includes Mitchell Santner, currently active in the IPL, offering spin control with an economy rate under 8.

The predicted playing XI for Surrey: Sam Curran, Jamie Smith, Tom Curran, Dom Sibley, Jason Roy, Ollie Pope, Laurie Evans, Daniel Worrall, James Clark, Mitchell Santner, Dan Lawrence.

Conditions and Strategic Insights

The weather in Taunton is expected to be clear and sunny, with temperatures fluctuating between 13 and 22 degrees Celsius. Southeastern winds between 10 and 26 km/h may influence swing conditions, especially early in the innings. The pitch at the Cooper Associates County Ground typically offers a balanced contest between bat and ball. Batters can score freely, but early movement from pacers and subtle assistance for spinners ensure bowlers remain in contention.

The surface is known for being competitive, and a total of 170 or more could pose a challenge for teams batting second. Historically, the venue has produced high-scoring matches, but it has also rewarded disciplined bowling in the powerplay and death overs.

Prediction

Somerset’s recent record against Surrey is favorable, having won four of the last five meetings between the two sides. With the return of influential players such as Tom Banton and Matt Henry, Somerset enters the game with a well-rounded squad. Their batting order boasts both explosiveness and depth, while the bowling unit is reinforced with experience and pace variety.

Surrey, despite possessing individual match-winners like the Curran brothers and Jamie Smith, may find themselves challenged by Somerset’s cohesion and home advantage. The match promises to be a closely fought contest, but the hosts appear to have the edge based on squad balance and past performance.

Prediction: Somerset to win.