A new study has unveiled alarming potential consequences of global warming, predicting temperature increases that substantially exceed previous estimates by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Researchers analyzing sediments from the Pacific Ocean near California have discovered that the Earth’s average temperature could potentially soar by 7 to 14 degrees Celsius (13 to 25.2 degrees Fahrenheit), a stark contrast to the 2.3 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (4.1 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) forecasted by the IPCC.
This study involved scientists from NIOZ, and the Universities of Utrecht and Bristol, who utilized a method developed two decades ago at NIOZ known as the TEX86 method. This technique helped them measure historical seawater temperatures and provided insights into ancient atmospheric CO2 levels.
The research was based on a 45-year-old drill core from the Pacific Ocean’s floor, a location characterized by anoxic conditions for millions of years, making it ideal for such a study. The team, led by Caitlyn Witkowski, analyzed the chemical composition of substances like chlorophyll and cholesterol found in algae to infer past atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Their findings suggest a significant reduction in CO2 levels about 15 million years ago, dropping from 650 parts per million to 280 just before the industrial revolution. They established that during this ancient period, the average temperature was about 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit)—significantly warmer by four degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) than today’s average temperatures.
This research warns that by the year 2100, under the most extreme climate scenario, Earth could experience similar temperature conditions if significant actions are not taken to curb CO2 emissions. Professor Jaap Sinninghe Damsté, a senior scientist at NIOZ and a professor at Utrecht University, emphasized the potential for CO2 levels to have a more substantial impact on global temperatures than currently anticipated, urging for more robust measures against CO2 emissions to avoid these severe outcomes.