Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Prediction, Stats, Odds: 15/8/2025

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will meet ninth seed Elena Rybakina in the quarter-finals of the 2025 Cincinnati Open, marking their 12th career meeting. This clash brings together two of the most powerful hitters on the WTA Tour, with both players aiming for a spot in the semi-finals and the momentum heading into the US Open.

Sabalenka’s Strong Title Defence

Sabalenka, the defending champion in Cincinnati, has returned this year determined to keep her crown. Last season’s win broke a streak of two consecutive semi-final exits, and she has already shown sharp form in her title defence. Two of her three matches so far have been straight-sets victories, underlining her efficiency.

After surviving a grueling three-hour battle against Emma Raducanu in the second round, Sabalenka returned to her dominant best, dispatching Jessica Bouzas Maneiro while conceding just six games. That win extended her unbeaten streak in Cincinnati to 10 matches, adding to her impressive 50-9 season record.

Importantly, Sabalenka won their most recent meeting in Berlin earlier this year — a match that reinforced her tactical edge and psychological advantage over the Kazakh star.

Rybakina’s Road to the Quarter-Finals

Elena Rybakina enters this match as the underdog, but she is no stranger to success against Sabalenka. She has defeated the world No. 1 four times, with two of those wins coming in high-stakes tour championship finals.

Rybakina’s route to the quarter-finals included a hard-fought three-set win over Madison Keys, which showcased both her composure under pressure and her baseline firepower. Currently holding a 40-15 season record, the world No. 10 will be eager to break her run of recent struggles against top-10 opposition, having lost seven of eight such matches this year.

While history leans in Sabalenka’s favour — with seven wins in their rivalry, including the last two encounters — Rybakina’s ability to rise for big matches makes her a dangerous opponent.

Key Match Stats and Betting Outlook

• Head-to-Head: Sabalenka leads 7–4
• Streaks: Sabalenka has 10 straight wins in Cincinnati; Rybakina has lost seven of her last eight vs. top 10 players.
• Recent Meetings: Sabalenka won both encounters in 2025, including Berlin two months ago.

Odds:

• Sabalenka win – 1.65 (Betway), implied chance 55.72%
• Rybakina win – 2.55 (Tonybet), implied chance 44.28%

Prediction

Given Sabalenka’s strong track record in this rivalry, her dominant form in Cincinnati, and her ability to handle high-pressure moments, she remains the favourite to progress. However, Rybakina’s history of upsetting Sabalenka — especially in big finals — means this will likely be a competitive, hard-hitting affair rather than a one-sided contest.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win, potentially in three sets, extending her Cincinnati winning streak to 11 matches. Projected Scoreline: 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.