PSG vs Arsenal Match Preview, Prediction and betting odds: 7/5/2025

The UEFA Champions League semi-final reaches a critical point as Paris Saint-Germain host Arsenal in the second leg of their tie at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday, May 7, 2025. The French side hold a 1-0 advantage following a tightly contested first leg at the Emirates Stadium, where Ousmane Dembélé’s early strike proved the difference. With a place in the final at Munich’s Allianz Arena on May 31 at stake, both teams enter the return leg knowing that fine margins could determine the outcome.

Despite PSG’s narrow lead, the tie remains open. Arsenal require a one-goal win to level the aggregate score and force extra time, with penalties to follow if no winner emerges after 120 minutes. Notably, the away goals rule no longer applies in UEFA competitions.

Odds Favor PSG at Home, But Arsenal Remain Within Reach

Bookmakers currently make PSG slight favorites to win the second leg, offering odds of 11/10 (2.1). Arsenal are priced at 13/5 (3.6), while a draw stands at 36/15 (3.4). In terms of overall qualification, PSG are backed at 2/11 (1.182) to reach the final, while Arsenal are available at 7/2 (4.5) to advance.

The first-leg result strengthens PSG’s chances, but Arsenal’s attacking potential means they cannot be counted out. For punters, promotions from major bookmakers—including codes for 1XBET and 1Win—may offer additional value ahead of this high-profile fixture.

Team News and Key Player Updates

PSG approach the second leg with a clean bill of health and no major injury concerns. Having already secured the Ligue 1 title, manager Luis Enrique has been able to rest first-team players in domestic fixtures to prioritize this Champions League campaign. With a full-strength squad expected, PSG’s front line of Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé, and Randal Kolo Muani will aim to capitalize on Arsenal’s defensive risks.

Arsenal, meanwhile, face several selection issues. Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are both doubtful, which could impact their attacking setup. However, the return of Thomas Partey from suspension bolsters midfield stability and could be crucial in maintaining control during key phases of the game. Bukayo Saka remains Arsenal’s leading scorer in the competition with five goals, though he was unable to break through PSG’s disciplined defense in the first leg.

Manager Mikel Arteta remains optimistic, emphasizing the importance of belief and intensity heading into the away leg. Defender William Saliba acknowledged the slow start in the first leg but highlighted the team’s response, suggesting Arsenal will carry that energy into Paris.

Match Statistics and Tactical Dynamics

PSG have maintained an unblemished home record in this season’s Champions League, winning all four of their matches at the Parc des Princes. That form includes victories over top-tier European sides, showcasing their ability to manage games in front of their supporters.

Arsenal’s away performances in Europe have been mixed. They recorded a standout 7-1 victory at PSV in the Round of 16 but also suffered a 2-1 defeat at Lens earlier in the competition. With the tie finely balanced, the Gunners must deliver a complete performance to overturn PSG’s lead.

Given the attacking styles of both teams and the necessity for Arsenal to score, an open match with chances at both ends is likely. Arsenal have scored in eight of their last eleven away games in the Champions League, indicating they can pose a threat. However, PSG’s counter-attacking potential, particularly with the pace of Mbappé and Dembélé, could exploit any defensive gaps.

Market Insights and Recommended Bets

For those looking to bet on the match, several key markets stand out:

• PSG win: 11/10 (2.1)
• Draw: 36/15 (3.4)
• Arsenal win: 13/5 (3.6)
• Both teams to score – Yes: 13/20 (1.65)
• Both teams to score – No: 6/5 (2.20)
• Over 2.5 total goals: 8/11 (1.73)

Combining PSG to win and both teams to score returns 23/10 (3.3), while a 2-1 PSG victory is priced at 8/1 (9.00). Given the likelihood of an aggressive approach from Arsenal, there is strong potential for goals at both ends.

Prediction

This second-leg encounter is set to be closely fought, with both clubs bringing elite European pedigree and tactical depth. PSG’s home advantage and ability to manage pressure situations could be decisive. Arsenal are capable of producing moments of quality, but injuries and the challenge of overcoming a deficit in Paris present significant hurdles.

Expect PSG to control possession and look to hit on the break, while Arsenal will need to press forward and take risks. The match is likely to feature multiple goals, and while Arsenal may find the net, PSG’s overall balance and clinical edge could prove decisive.

Prediction: PSG 2–1 Arsenal