Netanyahu Clings to Power—Is Another Israeli Election Coming?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s grip on power has weakened significantly following the exit of two major ultra-Orthodox parties from his ruling coalition. With United Torah Judaism (7 seats) and Shas (11 seats) withdrawing their backing, Netanyahu’s alliance now holds only 49 seats in the 120-member Knesset—well below the 61 needed for a majority.

While this dramatic shift increases the likelihood of early elections, it doesn’t make them inevitable—at least not yet. The government can still function in a minority capacity unless a vote of no confidence or a bill to dissolve the Knesset is successfully passed. Since the legislature is currently in recess until October, Netanyahu has a brief window to regroup or delay any critical votes that could end his government.

Yuli Edelstein and the Haredi Conscription Crisis

A key figure at the center of this political storm is Yuli Edelstein, a former Soviet refusenik turned influential Israeli politician. As Chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Edelstein is spearheading controversial legislation aimed at expanding military conscription to include ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jewish men, who have long been exempt from mandatory service.

Edelstein has firmly rejected watered-down compromises. “The committee I chair will only produce a real draft law that significantly increases the IDF’s recruitment base,” he declared, underscoring that without enforceable sanctions, the law would be nothing more than political theater. His proposal includes both personal and institutional penalties for draft evasion—an approach that has alienated the Haredi factions and made Edelstein a political target.

Netanyahu reportedly attempted to sideline Edelstein over his uncompromising stance, but the move failed. Edelstein insists he represents the families whose children serve in the military, arguing that exemptions for one segment of the population erode the principle of equal civic duty.

Haredi Leverage and Coalition Fragility

For decades, Israel’s ultra-Orthodox communities have maintained a degree of separation from the secular structures of the state, including military service. Instead, many young men pursue religious studies in yeshivas (Jewish seminaries), bolstered by state funding and political protection.

Whenever legislation threatens this arrangement, Haredi parties have historically responded by withdrawing from governing coalitions. Their influence has proven critical in Israeli politics, particularly in times of national crisis, such as the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Public frustration with the Haredi draft exemption has grown, prompting legal challenges that have resulted in Supreme Court rulings demanding greater equality in military obligations.

The disconnect has also led to tension between various Zionist factions—religious, political, and secular—and underscores the ideological fractures within Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc.

Netanyahu’s Political Survival Above All

Throughout his political career, from 1996 to the present, Netanyahu has never won an outright majority. Even at his peak in 2020, Likud secured only 36 seats. His continued reign has depended heavily on alliances with smaller parties, especially the ultra-Orthodox factions, who wield disproportionate influence despite their limited voter base.

These parties, however, are not eager to trigger a snap election. Polls suggest they are unlikely to replicate their current favorable standing in a future government. Their departure, therefore, appears more symbolic—an attempt to pressure Netanyahu while keeping open the door for negotiation.

Notably, Netanyahu’s governments have traditionally excluded Arab-Israeli parties from coalition talks. In 2018, his administration fell due to resistance from Haredi parties over the same military draft issue currently plaguing his leadership.

According to Dahlia Scheindlin, a columnist for Haaretz, political preservation continues to outweigh national interest. This sentiment resonates widely among Israelis who are disillusioned with both the drawn-out conflict and the ongoing exemptions for the Haredi population. Many Likud voters and religious Zionists are demanding an end to these privileges, arguing that it is unjust for some to call for war but refuse to participate in it.

Outlook: Gridlock or Collapse?

With the Knesset in recess, Netanyahu may be able to extend his premiership for a while longer. But absent a solid majority and facing internal dissent, his government stands on increasingly shaky ground. Whether he can placate his disillusioned allies or survive another vote remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the deep divisions over military service and religious privilege have once again thrust Israeli politics into a state of volatility.