Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, tips, odds, stats: 14/8/2025

Luca Nardi’s Cincinnati Open campaign has taken an unexpected turn. Initially eliminated in the final qualifying round by Alexander Blockx, the Italian was granted a second chance as a lucky loser following late withdrawals. That opportunity has paid off in a big way—he’s now in the last 16 of the tournament, set to face second seed Carlos Alcaraz.

Earlier this year, Nardi also reached a Masters quarter-final as a lucky loser, but this will be his toughest challenge yet. The 82nd-ranked player has already dispatched Agustín Thiago Tirante, 24th seed Denis Shapovalov, and 16th seed Jakub Mensik—benefiting from a retirement while leading 6-2, 2-1 in the third round.

Alcaraz’s Path and Recent Form

Carlos Alcaraz, ranked world No. 2, has shown moments of vulnerability in Cincinnati. In his opening match, he needed three sets to overcome Damir Dzumhur, and in the next round, he conceded eight games to Hamad Medjedovic. A victory here would mark his third career Cincinnati quarter-final and his fourth hard-court quarter-final of 2025, with one title already won this season.

The Spaniard leads their head-to-head 1–0, having defeated Nardi in three sets earlier this year on hard courts.

Key Stats to Watch

• The only previous meeting between these two went to a deciding set.
• In Alcaraz’s last 21 best-of-three matches, more than 17.5 games have been played.
• Nardi’s past three completed matches in Cincinnati have all exceeded 17.5 games.
• Across his five matches this week (including qualifying), Nardi’s contests have averaged 20.4 games.

Prediction

Nardi enters this match full of confidence after capitalizing on his unexpected main draw entry. His past performance against Alcaraz—pushing him to three sets—suggests he can compete, especially if the Spaniard starts slowly as he has in earlier rounds.

Still, Alcaraz’s ability to lift his level in key moments makes him the clear favorite. Given both players’ recent match patterns, a competitive encounter with extended games is likely.

Prediction: Over 17.5 total games.