Middlesex vs Surrey Prediction, Players, Standings, Odds: 16/7/2025

As the 2025 T20 Blast enters its final stretch, teams are scrambling to finish in the top four of their respective groups. Middlesex and Surrey face off in the 114th match of the tournament, but only one side has something to gain from the outcome.

Middlesex have already bowed out of the qualification race following a series of disappointing performances, including a seven-wicket loss to Kent Spitfires. In contrast, Surrey continue to ride a wave of momentum after a dominant victory over Somerset, bringing them within touching distance of the next round.

While Surrey look to strengthen their playoff bid, Middlesex have only pride left to play for as they host their in-form rivals at Lord’s.

Middlesex: Searching for a Positive Finish to a Frustrating Campaign

Middlesex’s season has been turbulent. With inconsistent performances piling up, the leadership baton was passed from Stephen Eskinazi to Leus du Plooy mid-season. However, the change has done little to shift their fortunes, and their recent defeat against Kent sealed their elimination from the tournament.

At this stage, du Plooy’s priority is likely to restore morale and give home fans something to cheer about. The batting unit, which has lacked rhythm throughout the campaign, will need to fire collectively. Eskinazi and Ben Geddes must provide a solid opening stand, while the middle-order trio of Kane Williamson, du Plooy, and Ryan Higgins need to find fluency and stability.

Lower down, Joe Cracknell and Luke Hollman will be called upon to finish strongly — something Middlesex has struggled with this season.

The bowling unit has also underperformed. Neither Tom Helm nor Noah Cornwell have been effective with the new ball, often allowing opposition batters to dominate the powerplay. To contain a powerful Surrey lineup, Middlesex will rely heavily on disciplined spells from Ryan Higgins and Joshua Little through the middle overs. The support of spinners Hollman and Zafar Gohar will also be vital if they are to limit the damage.

Middlesex Probable XI: Leus du Plooy (c), Stephen Eskinazi, Ben Geddes, Kane Williamson, Ryan Higgins, Joe Cracknell (wk), Luke Hollman, Zafar Gohar, Tom Helm, Joshua Little, Noah Cornwell

Surrey: Eyeing a Clinical Finish and a Spot in the Knockouts

Surrey have found their stride at just the right time. Their emphatic 67-run win over table-toppers Somerset highlighted their dominance with both bat and ball. With a top-four finish within reach, captain Sam Curran will want his side to stay focused and keep the momentum going.

The batting lineup has been one of the best in the competition. Openers Will Jacks and Ryan Patel have consistently laid strong foundations. The middle order, anchored by the likes of Jason Roy, Curran himself, and Daniel Lawrence, has frequently capitalized on those starts. Add the lower-order firepower of Tom Curran, Jamie Overton, and Chris Jordan, and Surrey possess the ability to post or chase down any total.

In the bowling department, the Curran brothers continue to be a formidable new-ball pair. Reece Topley adds further bite to the attack, while Jordan and leg-spinner Adam Zampa bring control and experience through the middle overs. The inclusion of all-rounders such as Overton and Will Jacks gives Surrey an enviable depth and versatility.

Surrey Probable XI: Sam Curran (c), Will Jacks, Ryan Patel, Jason Roy, Daniel Lawrence, Ben Foakes (wk), Tom Curran, Jamie Overton, Chris Jordan, Adam Zampa, Reece Topley

Conditions and Strategy: Lord’s Set for High-Scoring Contest

The weather in London is expected to be mild with light cloud cover, creating ideal conditions for batting. Lord’s has traditionally been a favorable venue for batters, with its flat pitch and true bounce. Recent games at this ground have been high-scoring affairs, with first-innings scores regularly approaching or exceeding the 180-run mark.

Teams batting first have struggled to defend targets under pressure, especially with the short boundaries and rapid outfield. Therefore, the captain winning the toss is likely to opt to bowl first, looking to exploit early movement before settling in to chase.

Pitch Note: The ball tends to come nicely onto the bat at Lord’s, and batting becomes easier as the match progresses — a key factor influencing most captains’ decision at the toss.

Toss Prediction: Bowl First
Average 1st Innings Score at Lord’s (T20s): ~178

Prediction

With Middlesex already out of contention, they will be playing with nothing to lose — a factor that can sometimes produce surprising results. However, their season-long struggles, particularly with consistency in both batting and bowling, make it difficult to back them against a well-drilled Surrey unit.

Surrey not only have a deeper, more explosive batting lineup but also a more balanced and in-form bowling attack. Their recent win against a strong Somerset side underlines their credentials as serious contenders for the title.

Prediction: Surrey to win.