Why Metaplanet Stock Remains Trapped in Bear Market

Shares of Metaplanet have sharply declined this month, officially entering bear market territory after dropping nearly 40% from their highest point in 2024. The steep correction has surprised investors, particularly as the company’s sizable Bitcoin holdings have increased in value during the same period.

Metaplanet’s stock has fallen to ¥1,180, retreating from its peak of ¥1,934 earlier this year—a level it hasn’t seen since June 3. This pullback comes even as Bitcoin, the asset at the core of Metaplanet’s business model, has strengthened. The firm currently holds 16,352 BTC, with a market value of approximately $1.9 billion. Given the average acquisition cost of $99,502 per Bitcoin, the value of these holdings has appreciated by nearly 20%.

However, despite the uptick in digital asset value, Metaplanet’s shares have not followed suit. Analysts point to three primary factors contributing to the disconnect between the company’s cryptocurrency position and its equity performance.

Overvaluation Concerns and Stock Dilution

First, there are mounting concerns that Metaplanet’s stock has become overvalued relative to peers in the Bitcoin treasury space. Its net asset value (NAV) multiple currently sits at 2.79, significantly above that of other Bitcoin-heavy firms. For instance, MicroStrategy, often seen as the original corporate Bitcoin investor, trades at a NAV multiple of just 1.6. Other companies in the sector—such as Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, and Semler Scientific—maintain even lower NAV multiples, typically under 2.

Second, investor sentiment may be dampened by the company’s ongoing equity dilution. Following in the footsteps of MicroStrategy, Metaplanet has issued new shares to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. Although the strategy has increased the company’s crypto reserves, it has also raised concerns about shareholder dilution. The company’s outstanding share count has ballooned from 57 million in 2022 to 459 million today—a massive increase that could continue as the firm pursues its goal of accumulating 100,000 BTC.

Sector-Wide Weakness and Profit-Taking Pressure

Third, Metaplanet’s underperformance appears to reflect a broader trend among firms with substantial Bitcoin reserves. For example, MicroStrategy’s share price remains 25% below its all-time high, despite Bitcoin itself trading close to record levels. This decoupling suggests that public markets may be recalibrating valuations of crypto-heavy firms, even as the underlying asset performs well.

Lastly, part of Metaplanet’s sell-off may simply be profit-taking. At its peak, the company’s stock had risen over 12,900% from its lowest point in 2024—a meteoric rally that invited speculative interest. After such a surge, it’s not unusual for investors to cash out and lock in gains, leading to a corrective pullback.

Technical Outlook Hints at Potential Recovery

From a technical standpoint, the weekly chart shows the stock has fallen from ¥1,932 to around ¥1,150, settling near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of ¥1,200. Despite the sharp decline, the price remains above both its 50-week and 100-week moving averages, indicating that longer-term momentum is still intact.

Moreover, a hammer candlestick has appeared on the chart—a pattern often associated with potential reversals. This formation, characterized by a small real body and a long lower shadow, suggests that selling pressure may be easing.

Should Bitcoin’s price resume its upward trajectory, analysts believe there’s a strong chance Metaplanet’s stock could rebound as well. However, future performance will likely hinge on investor confidence in the company’s balance-sheet strategy and the broader market sentiment toward crypto-aligned equities.