The Daily Star Lebanon Breaking News, Lebanon News, Middle East News & World News
Voting has begun in mainland France for critical runoff elections that could either deliver a historic victory to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally or result in a hung parliament, leading to years of political gridlock.
French President Emmanuel Macron took a significant risk by dissolving parliament and calling for these elections after his centrist party’s defeat in the European elections on June 9.
These snap elections in this nuclear-armed nation will impact the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy, and Europe’s economic stability, almost certainly weakening Macron for the next three years of his presidency.
The first round on June 30 marked the largest gains ever for the anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen.
Over 49 million people are registered to vote, determining which party controls the National Assembly, France’s influential lower house of parliament, and who will become prime minister. If Macron’s already weakened centrist majority loses more support, he will be compelled to share power with parties opposed to his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.
The electoral campaign has been marred by racism, antisemitism, Russian cyber campaigns, and over 50 reported physical attacks on candidates—an unusual occurrence in France. The government has deployed 30,000 police officers on voting day.
These elections coincide with a special summer in France: Paris is preparing for the ambitious Olympic Games, the national soccer team has reached the Euro 2024 semifinals, and the Tour de France is underway alongside the Olympic torch relay.
Voting will conclude at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) in mainland France and Corsica, with initial polling projections expected Sunday night and early official results anticipated late Sunday and early Monday.
Voters in the Americas and French overseas territories, including Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint-Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana, and French Polynesia, voted on Saturday.
If the National Rally wins an absolute majority, it would mark France’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation during World War II, with its 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella potentially becoming prime minister. The party led in last week’s first-round voting, followed by a coalition of center-left, hard-left, and Green parties, and Macron’s centrist alliance.
The outcome remains highly uncertain. Polls suggest the National Rally might secure the most seats in the 577-seat National Assembly but fall short of the 289 needed for a majority. This would still be historic, as a party with xenophobic roots and a history of downplaying the Holocaust could become France’s largest political force.
If no party achieves a majority, Macron may have to negotiate coalitions with the center-left or form a technocratic government without political affiliations, both unprecedented for modern France. This would complicate the EU’s second-largest economy’s ability to make decisive moves on issues like arming Ukraine, labor law reforms, or deficit reduction. Financial markets have been jittery since Macron’s surprising announcement of snap elections following the National Rally’s success in the European Parliament elections.
Macron has stated he will not resign and intends to complete his term ending in 2027.
Many French voters, particularly in small towns and rural areas, are discontented with low incomes and perceive Parisian political leaders as elitist and detached from workers’ struggles. The National Rally has resonated with these voters, often blaming immigration for France’s issues, and has built substantial support over the past decade.
Le Pen has moderated many of the party’s stances—no longer advocating for NATO or EU withdrawal—to increase electability. However, the party’s core far-right values persist, including a referendum on whether being born in France merits citizenship, restricting dual citizens’ rights, and granting police more freedom to use weapons.
