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Kairat Almaty’s long-awaited debut in the Champions League group stage did not go as planned. The Kazakh champions were heavily beaten 4-1 by Sporting Lisbon at Estádio José Alvalade on matchday one, a harsh welcome to Europe’s biggest stage. Still, their qualification campaign was impressive—they overcame Slovan Bratislava and Celtic, two sides with far greater European pedigree, to reach this milestone.
At home, Kairat are in a tight domestic title race with Astana, just three games from the end of the Kazakh league season. Recent results have been encouraging: a 3-1 win over Zhenis, a 1-0 victory against Aktobe, and a narrow 1-0 success away at Okzhetpes have kept them firmly in contention for the championship.
Real Madrid’s Narrow Start
Real Madrid, meanwhile, opened their Champions League campaign with a 2-1 win at the Santiago Bernabéu over Olympique de Marseille. The result looked routine, but the performance was less convincing, with Los Blancos relying on two Kylian Mbappé penalties to secure the points after struggling to break Marseille down from open play.
Head coach Xabi Alonso will be mindful not to underestimate Kairat despite the gulf in experience between the clubs. Madrid still carry painful memories from the 2021/22 group stage, when they suffered a shock home defeat to Sheriff Tiraspol—another so-called underdog. The Spaniards prepared for this clash with a fierce city derby against Atlético Madrid at the Metropolitano, shortly after a commanding 4-1 away win at Levante in La Liga.
Team News and Key Players
Kairat Almaty head into this match with a number of absentees. First-choice goalkeeper Zarutskiy is injured, while backup shot-stopper Temirlan Anarbekov is also sidelined. Midfield anchor Luka Zarija, Brazilian veteran João Paulo, and striker Elder Santana are likewise unavailable, leaving the squad stretched for such a high-profile fixture.
Real Madrid’s injury situation is improving, with Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga recently returning to action. However, defenders Antonio Rüdiger, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Ferland Mendy remain unavailable. Dani Carvajal will also miss the trip after being sent off against Marseille. Despite the long journey to Kazakhstan, Alonso is expected to bring a strong squad, avoiding wholesale rotation to ensure momentum in the group stage.
What to Expect
Kairat’s record in Europe highlights the scale of the challenge they face. They are winless in their last 11 Champions League matches at this level, with five of their last nine ending in defeat. However, their domestic scoring record shows resilience—they have found the net in 13 consecutive matches and opened the scoring in 17 of their last 23 across all competitions.
Real Madrid, by contrast, boast one of the most dominant records in European history and remain one of the favorites to win the competition. Their quality in attack, combined with experience across the pitch, makes them overwhelming favorites, though the altitude and travel distance to Kazakhstan may add a minor complication.
Prediction
Kairat may cause occasional problems through their energy and home support, but Real Madrid’s superiority in quality, depth, and experience is undeniable. A professional, controlled performance should be enough for Los Blancos to secure another three points.
Prediction: Kairat Almaty 0 – 3 Real Madrid
