Italy vs Moldova Preview, Prediction, News and odds: 9/6/2025

Italy will host Moldova on Monday, June 9, 2025, at Mapei Stadium in a crucial Group 4 qualifier for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The match, set to begin at 19:45 local time, presents a pivotal moment for both nations as they attempt to revive or sustain their qualification campaigns. Italy, looking to recover from recent inconsistency, will aim to reassert their authority, while Moldova will hope to defy expectations and secure their first points in the group.

While the Azzurri enter as clear favorites, Moldova will look to frustrate the hosts and exploit any vulnerability, making this a fixture with more at stake than just three points.

Italy Overview

Italy come into this encounter with a record that highlights recent instability. Across their last five matches in all competitions, they’ve registered two wins, one draw, and two defeats. Their most recent performance, a 3-3 draw against Germany away from home, showed both their offensive strength and ongoing defensive concerns.

In the context of World Cup qualifying, Italy’s recent record has raised alarm. With only one victory in their last five qualifiers, complemented by three draws and one defeat, questions remain over their ability to control games they are expected to dominate. The 1-0 home loss to North Macedonia remains a sore point in the ongoing campaign and has increased pressure on the squad to perform.

Head coach Luciano Spalletti is tasked with restoring structure and belief. His tactical blueprint emphasizes possession-based football and fluid attacking sequences, often employing a 4-3-3 system. A core group of seasoned professionals is now being blended with younger players, many of whom are gaining valuable experience in Italy’s top flight and across Europe.

With the support of the home crowd in Reggio Emilia and a historically strong record in home qualifiers, Italy will aim to dictate tempo from the outset and establish dominance against a Moldovan side expected to play on the counter.

Moldova Overview

Moldova sit near the bottom of the group standings, having suffered two defeats in as many matches. With a goal differential of -6—scoring twice but conceding eight—they remain winless and under significant pressure to salvage their qualifying campaign. Despite this, their most recent match, a narrow 3-2 home defeat to Estonia, showed signs of attacking improvement, even if defensive issues persist.

Over their last five fixtures across all competitions, Moldova have recorded one win, one draw, and three losses. While results have been mixed, their growing ability to score, even in defeat, will offer a glimmer of hope heading into a challenging away fixture.

Their away record in qualifiers remains a serious concern, with no points claimed in the current campaign. The team is expected to line up in a deep defensive shape—likely a 5-4-1 or 4-5-1—aiming to remain compact and reduce space for Italy’s attacking players. Set-pieces and isolated counters may offer their best chance of creating scoring opportunities.

Historic Meetings and Tactical Landscape

The last encounter between Italy and Moldova ended in a dominant 6-0 victory for the Azzurri, underlining the disparity in quality between the two sides. Across five total meetings, Italy have emerged victorious each time, keeping a clean sheet in all but one of those fixtures.

The head-to-head data strongly favors Italy, reinforcing expectations that the hosts will control possession and chances while Moldova absorb pressure and attempt to stay compact.

Team Form Snapshot

Italy – Last five matches: Win, Draw, Loss, Win, Loss
Latest result: 3-3 draw vs Germany (away)

Moldova – Last five matches: Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss, Win
Latest result: 2-3 loss vs Estonia (home)

These records show that while Italy have shown inconsistency, their performances have generally come against stronger opposition. Moldova’s vulnerability in defense, especially on the road, is likely to be tested by Italy’s attacking setup.

Odds and Market Predictions

The bookmakers present Italy as overwhelming favorites. The best price for a home win is 1.02 with 1win. A draw is offered at 19.00, while a Moldova win stands at 100.00, reflecting the gulf in class and expectations.

In the “Both Teams to Score” market, the “No” option is priced at 1.11 with Melbet, indicating a high probability that Italy will keep a clean sheet. Conversely, the “Yes” option is at 6.20, offering a higher return for those expecting a Moldovan goal.

For bettors seeking enhanced value, a handicap market could be considered, with Italy expected to win by multiple goals. Many bookmakers are also offering welcome bonuses and freebet promotions, which can be utilized for matches with short odds like this one.

Prediction

Italy will enter this match fully aware of the importance of a strong performance. After underwhelming results in earlier qualifiers, they will seek not only to win but to do so convincingly. With superior talent, tactical structure, and home advantage, the Azzurri have every tool needed to secure three points.

Moldova, for their part, will likely aim to keep the scoreline respectable and potentially catch Italy off-guard during transitional phases. But barring a major upset, the outcome should favor the hosts.

Given Italy’s attacking potential and Moldova’s defensive vulnerabilities, a multi-goal win without conceding seems likely. The home side is expected to control proceedings from start to finish, using the match as a springboard to gain momentum in the group standings.

Prediction: Italy 3–0 Moldova