Italy vs Estonia Prediction, Preview, Odds: 5/9/2025

Italy’s meeting with Estonia in the 2026 World Championship qualifiers is more than just another group fixture—it represents a key test for Gennaro Gattuso’s restructured Azzurri. Having stepped in after Luciano Spalletti’s departure, Gattuso has moved quickly to refresh the squad with new energy and resilience. His early call-ups included teenage defender Giovanni Leoni of Liverpool, Francesco Pio Esposito from Inter, and Bologna midfielder Giovanni Fabbian.

Currently lagging in Group I, Italy cannot afford further slip-ups. Their recent 2–0 win over Moldova provided a glimpse of the balance Gattuso is trying to instill, but with pressure mounting from both fans and media, Estonia’s visit to Bergamo comes at a pivotal moment in Italy’s campaign.

Estonia’s Quiet Confidence

Estonia arrive as underdogs but not without belief. Under Jürgen Henn, they have shown determination despite a mixed run of results. Their shock 3–2 win in Moldova and a near-draw against Norway—only undone by a late strike from Erling Haaland—have underlined their growth.

Key performers include goalkeeper Karl Jakob Hein, who plies his trade with Real Valladolid, midfield engine Mattias Käit, and striker Rauno Sappinen, all central to Estonia’s quick-transition style. Injuries have tested their depth, particularly in defense, but the squad remains tactically disciplined and ready to exploit any lapses from their opponents.

Tactical Dynamics

Gattuso’s Italy is expected to dominate possession, relying on a technically strong midfield and fullbacks pushing high up the pitch. The pressing system he has implemented could, however, leave spaces for Estonia to counter. Vlasiy Sinyavskiy’s pace on the wings is one of the Baltic side’s main weapons and could test Italy’s defensive concentration.

In attack, Italy are likely to look to Mateo Retegui and Esposito to provide the cutting edge. With home support behind them, the Azzurri should create enough chances, but breaking down a compact Estonian defense led by Hein will require patience and precision.

Prediction

Estonia are unlikely to go quietly. Their resilience and Hein’s reliability in goal suggest they may cause Italy anxious moments, possibly even finding the net on a counter-attack or set piece. Still, Italy’s superior individual quality, home advantage, and recent upturn in form should be decisive.

The Azzurri are strong at home, winning five of their last seven competitive fixtures and losing only once in ten. Estonia, meanwhile, have struggled on their travels, losing four of their last six away matches. Italy should control the tempo and close out the game with authority—an essential step in their quest to regain momentum and restore their reputation on the international stage.

Prediction: Italy 3–0 Estonia.