Damascus Strike: Israel Targets Lebanon and Syria to Undermine Iran?

The recent airstrike on Iran’s diplomatic outpost in Damascus, attributed to Israel, has escalated tensions, potentially expanding the conflict that began with the Gaza war to encompass the broader region. This escalation is something Tehran had hoped to avoid, according to analysts.

The attack completely destroyed the Iranian embassy’s consular annex and resulted in the death of 13 individuals, including seven members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Among the deceased were Brigadier Generals Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi of the Guards’ Qud Force, a unit dedicated to foreign operations.

Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group described the strike as a significant provocation, highlighting the breach of precedent by targeting a diplomatic facility. In response, Israel has intensified its operations against Iranian and pro-Iranian leaders in Lebanon and Syria, raising concerns about a potential full-scale war.

Iran, a major backer of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, has consistently denied any foreknowledge of Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7 that initiated the current conflict. Iran supports numerous groups that have launched attacks on Israel, standing in solidarity with Hamas, including Hezbollah. This group has been actively engaging with Israel in recent months.

Despite Iran’s statements wishing to avoid a comprehensive war, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, asserted that Israel would face repercussions for the Damascus airstrike. President Ebrahim Raisi also warned of an inevitable response to the raid.

Bassam Abu Abdallah suggested the situation has transitioned to an all-out war, predicting possible retaliatory attacks against U.S. bases in the region. Hezbollah has also promised retribution for the attack on the Iranian consulate.

The Crisis Group’s Vaez anticipates Iran might retaliate indirectly through its regional allies and proxies, balancing the risk of appearing weak against provoking further Israeli or U.S. actions.

Analysts speculate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, under diplomatic pressure and engaged in the prolonged Gaza conflict, might be gearing up for a broader confrontation with Iran, possibly expecting U.S. involvement. Efforts are underway, including diplomatic moves and a call for a U.N. Security Council meeting, to reduce tensions and avert further escalation.