Israel-Hezbollah clashes jeopardize historic border settlement

In October 2022, a groundbreaking maritime border agreement was reached between Lebanon and Israel, brokered by the United States. This agreement was seen as a step towards normalizing relations between the two nations, which have been technically at war for many years. The potential next phase was to address the longstanding dispute over their land border.

However, the situation took a turn for the worse following an attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, prompting a strong response from Israel in Gaza. The next day, Hezbollah’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, announced Lebanon’s entry into the conflict, marking a significant escalation in hostilities between Lebanon and Israel.

This resurgence of violence has raised concerns about the potential for a full-scale war, casting doubt on any immediate hopes for a land border settlement, despite the earlier maritime agreement.

The Israeli-Lebanese border has been a point of contention since Israel’s establishment in 1948, leading to the displacement of many Palestinians into neighboring countries, including Lebanon. The presence of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in Lebanon in the 1970s, and subsequent conflicts, further complicated relations.

In 1982, Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon aimed at ousting PLO fighters, resulting in significant casualties and the Sabra and Shatila massacre, for which Israel was indirectly held responsible. Israeli forces remained in southern Lebanon until 2000, during which time Hezbollah emerged as a significant force.

Disputes between Hezbollah and Israel have persisted, particularly along the contested border areas, including the Shebaa Farms, which both Lebanon and Hezbollah claim as Lebanese territory, while Israel views it as part of the Golan Heights, seized from Syria in 1967.

Efforts to delineate land and maritime boundaries have been ongoing, with significant progress made in 2022 when Lebanon and Israel agreed on maritime borders, facilitated by U.S. mediation. This agreement, heralding a potential easing of tensions, coincided with broader normalization trends in the region, such as the Abraham Accords.

However, the recent escalation following the Hamas attack and subsequent involvement of Hezbollah has halted progress on land border discussions. Assassinations and regional tensions, including statements by Saudi Arabia linking diplomatic relations with Israel to the recognition of a Palestinian state, have further complicated the situation.

The U.S. continues to seek a resolution to hostilities and a land border agreement, but the likelihood of achieving such a deal is currently overshadowed by the risk of wider conflict, despite many Lebanese desiring domestic reforms and stability over involvement in broader regional disputes.