Greece vs Italy Basketball Prediction & Betting Tips: 28/8/2025 – EuroBasket 2025

In a high-stakes Group C opener featuring two basketball heavyweights, Greece welcomes Italy to Limassol on August 28. Both teams are eager to start strong and claim early momentum in a highly competitive section that also includes Spain, Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the host nation, Cyprus.

Greece Preview

Greece arrives with a blend of star power and tradition. Headlined by NBA superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, the team is seeking its first EuroBasket title since 2005 but is poised for a serious run. Recent preseason preparation brings optimism after a late-game win over Italy and stabilizing results against rivals.

Their game plan features structured offense with Giannis anchoring as a high-IQ playmaker, complemented by role players capable of knocking down perimeter shots and making defensive hustle plays. Greece’s depth, rebounding, and physicality allow them to control pace and adapt across different matchups.

Italy Preview

Italy brings cohesion and efficiency to the table, with a well-balanced roster including experienced veterans like Simone Fontecchio. Their recent finish atop a EuroBasket impacting friendly, combined with sharp performances, signals strong form entering the race.

Offensively, Italy relies on disciplined ball movement and timely scoring bursts from the perimeter. Defensively, they aim to disrupt rhythm through schemed switching and forcing contested outside looks. Their depth and team structure often allow them to keep games within reach until the final quarter.

Key Matchups & Tactical Battle

• Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Italy’s Interior Defense: Can Italy contain Giannis’ driving and mid-pack scoring?
• Greek Perimeter Shooting vs. Italy’s Ball Pressure: Italy must disrupt shooters like Kostas Sloukas or Aaron Trafoulis to limit Greece’s spacing.
• Bench Depth: Greece’s reserves offer more versatility, while Italy will rely heavily on established units.

What to Watch Live

• Greece’s ability to establish calendar-making pace and control half-court execution.
• Italy’s adaptability to Giannis’ dominance—double teams, fronting, or switching—will shape the flow.
• Execution in clutch moments—Greece thrives with flexibility; Italy often relies on set plays.

Betting Insight

• Spread: Greece favored by approximately 6–8 points
• Moneyline: Greece has a solid edge in win probability
• Total (O/U): Expected around 160–165 points

Given Greece’s offensive firepower and home-court energy, they’re the smart pick to cover, especially if Italy struggles from deep. The over is tempting if early shooting is sharp, but Italy may clamp down late.

Recommended Play: Greece -6.5; consider Over 162 if the tempo picks up early.

Prediction

Greece 82 – Italy 74

Greece’s deeper rotation and Giannis’ influence should generate separation in the second half after a competitive start. Italy will offer resistance but likely can’t sustain finishing runs through the final quarters. This Greece vs Italy preview signals a classic opener where leadership and depth tip the scales in Greece’s favor.

X-Factor: Giannis’ rebounding and facilitating—if he commands both ends, Greece controls tempo and spacing.