This week in the Middle East, a series of military confrontations have escalated tensions significantly. The United States, Israel, and other nations have been actively engaged in conflicts with militant groups aligned with Iran. These skirmishes have taken place in critical areas such as the Red Sea shipping lanes, along the desolate Israeli-Lebanon borders, and near populous capitals and U.S. military bases.
Israel and its ally, the U.S., face a familiar challenge in the war in Gaza. Hamas, based in Gaza, is not the only group in conflict. Israel and the U.S. are also facing attacks from various other militant groups that are allied with Hamas and Iran, as they endeavor to diminish Hamas’s military capabilities.
This week, the potential for a more extensive, unpredictable, and lethal conflict with a range of regional adversaries has increased dramatically. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior officials from the Biden administration are visiting Middle Eastern capitals to ease tensions and prevent further attacks.
The current situation involves the U.S. attempting to subdue assaults by various armed groups allied with Iran. These include Hamas in Gaza, the dominant Hezbollah in Lebanon, smaller militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, who are viewed as somewhat unpredictable within this alliance.
Since the initiation of the Gaza war on October 7, following deadly cross-border raids by Hamas, all these groups have intensified their attacks on U.S., Israeli, or global targets. The overarching strategy of Iran and these armed factions is to aid Hamas by diverting the focus of Israel and the U.S. and increasing the costs of the war against Hamas to unsustainable levels.
Despite the heightened attacks, these groups generally do not seek further escalation, considering their odds against two of the world’s most formidable military forces. However, under the late Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the U.S. in 2020, these diverse militias have become a more unified network.
The principle guiding these groups, as observed by regional analyst Randa Slim, is mutual defense: when one group’s existence is threatened, the others will come to its aid.
The principal players in this conflict include:
– **Hamas**: A Palestinian militant organization based in Gaza, Hamas has its roots in the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood. It aims to destroy Israel and has conducted various deadly attacks, including suicide bombings. Since its electoral victory in Gaza in 2006 and subsequent takeover in 2007, it has been under blockade by Israel. While Hamas is Sunni, it has grown closer to Shiite Iran and its allies over time.
– **Hezbollah**: A Shiite militant group formed in 1982 in Lebanon in response to Israeli invasion. It is one of the most militarily and organizationally robust members of the Iran-allied alliance. Hezbollah has been involved in Lebanon’s government since 1992 and is stronger than the country’s official military. The 2006 war with Israel, initiated by Hezbollah’s kidnapping of Israeli soldiers, caused significant destruction in Lebanon. Hezbollah has engaged in rocket and missile strikes against Israel during the Gaza war but has avoided drastic escalation.
– **Houthis**: Operating in Yemen, the Houthis oversee a crucial global shipping route. They have been launching attacks on commercial vessels during the Gaza war. The group began as one of the many factions in Yemen and has grown closer to Iran due to the Saudi-led military intervention. The Houthis have limited popular support and are seen as somewhat independent in their actions compared to other Iran-allied groups.
– **Iran-Allied Militias in Syria and Iraq**: These include various smaller groups that have been involved in conflicts with U.S. and coalition forces. There has been an uptick in attacks against U.S. bases in these countries since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.
The Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, and other Sunni Muslim extremist groups have also responded to the Gaza conflict, calling for global attacks in retaliation.
The current situation presents significant challenges in terms of diplomacy, military strategy, and regional stability.