Elena Rybakina vs Jaqueline Cristian Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips: 1/8/2025

The third round of the Canadian Open is set for a compelling encounter as ninth seed Elena Rybakina prepares to meet Romania’s Jaqueline Cristian. With a place in the quarter-finals on the line, the winner will go on to face either Dayana Yastremska or Emma Navarro. This matchup also marks the first meeting between Rybakina and Cristian since 2022, and both players arrive with strong momentum.

Rybakina’s Solid Season Continues

Elena Rybakina wasted no time in her opening match, cruising past Hailey Baptiste in straight sets. That victory marked her 34th win of the season, adding to a campaign that has already seen her lift one trophy and reach three additional semi-finals. Her performance in this tournament is especially significant as she looks to climb from her current live WTA ranking of 12th.

In her last appearance at the Canadian Open, the 2022 Wimbledon champion made it to the semi-finals, and she’s aiming to go even further this time around. Known for her powerful serve and commanding baseline game, Rybakina enters this round as the favorite, but she’ll be fully aware of the challenge that Cristian presents.

Cristian in Career-Best Form

Jaqueline Cristian delivered a commanding performance of her own in the previous round, eliminating 20th seed Linda Noskova in straight sets. That victory followed another win earlier in the tournament, bringing Cristian’s total to two wins this week and elevating her live ranking to No. 49.

The Romanian is enjoying one of the most successful seasons of her career. She was runner-up in Rabat and also reached the semi-finals in Iasi, signaling a clear upward trajectory. Despite this being her first time competing in the main draw of a WTA 1000 event, Cristian has already proven she can rise to the occasion—she defeated Rybakina on a hard court in their most recent encounter.

Match Analysis and Key Stats

This match features two players with contrasting paths but shared momentum. Rybakina has accumulated nearly 170 career wins on hard courts, while Cristian, although less experienced at this level, has shown she can hold her own against top-tier opponents. Both players have won a match against each other previously, which adds a layer of unpredictability to this contest.

A key factor will be Cristian’s resilience in longer matches—though she has reached several third rounds this season, she has yet to progress beyond them. In contrast, Rybakina’s experience in deep tournament runs gives her a strategic edge.

Prediction

According to the latest betting odds, Elena Rybakina holds a 71.89% probability of winning, with odds of 1.13 on Bet365. Cristian trails with a 28.11% chance, listed at 6.5 by Vbet. The odds and overall trajectory of both players suggest a tight match, but one that ultimately favors the Kazakhstani star.

While Rybakina is the stronger player on paper, Cristian’s form and prior win over her opponent make this far from a foregone conclusion. Expect Cristian to challenge hard—possibly stealing a set—but Rybakina’s consistency and firepower should see her through to the next round.

Prediction: Rybakina to win in three sets