Doomsday Glacier Could Vanish by 23rd Century

The Thwaites Glacier, ominously nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier,” is on the brink of a collapse that could significantly elevate global sea levels. A recent study by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) utilized underwater robots to assess the glacier’s stability, predicting its potential disappearance by the 23rd century.

Spanning about 74.5 miles (120km) and forming a significant part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the disintegration of Thwaites could lead to a catastrophic rise in sea levels worldwide. Should Thwaites vanish, researchers estimate a global sea level rise of approximately two feet (65cm), which would submerge extensive areas of land.

Comparatively, the glacier’s vast size matches that of Great Britain or Florida, with some sections reaching depths of over 6,500ft (2,000 meters)—about 2.5 times taller than Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, the tallest building globally.

Dr. Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist with BAS, highlighted that while the glacier’s complete melt is anticipated, the precise timing remains uncertain. He noted a consensus that Thwaites’s retreat could speed up within the next century, but recent studies suggest this could happen even sooner due to newly understood processes.

Historically, the rate of ice loss from Thwaites and other glaciers has already seen a significant increase, doubling from the 1990s to the 2010s. The ongoing studies reinforce the dire prognosis, with the latest models forecasting a continued acceleration of ice loss into the 22nd century, potentially culminating in a broad collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet by the 23rd century, as noted by Dr. Ted Scambos, a US science coordinator and glaciologist.

Thwaites’s position makes it particularly vulnerable. It sits on seabed that not only is well below sea level, but also slopes inward toward the center of West Antarctica, exacerbating its instability.

The potential consequences extend beyond Thwaites; a complete collapse of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet could see global sea levels rise by about 10.8 feet (3.3 meters). Given these stakes, researchers are urgently calling for actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate Thwaites’s melt and prevent a large-scale climate disaster.