Novak Djokovic vs Cameron Norrie Prediction, Tips, Stats, Odds: 30/8/2025 – ATP US Open

Seventh seed Novak Djokovic continues his pursuit of a fifth US Open crown when he takes on Cameron Norrie in the third round at Flushing Meadows. It will be their seventh career meeting, and notably the third time this season that the pair cross paths at a Grand Slam. For Djokovic, this match carries echoes of last year’s disappointment, while for Norrie, it represents another chance to break through against one of tennis’ all-time greats.

Djokovic’s Redemption Mission

Djokovic’s 2024 US Open campaign ended in shock fashion, with a third-round exit marking his earliest departure from the tournament since 2006. That memory is bound to fuel his determination as he steps onto court against an opponent he has beaten on all six prior occasions.

The 38-year-old Serb, who brushed aside qualifier Zachary Svajda in four sets in the previous round, has been steadily sharpening his game this summer. Currently climbing back to sixth in the live rankings, Djokovic is aiming to join the exclusive group of players who have lifted the US Open trophy five times in the Open Era. His mix of resilience, experience, and tactical adaptability makes him a formidable obstacle for anyone in the draw.

Norrie’s Bid for a Breakthrough

For Cameron Norrie, the challenge is clear: secure his first-ever win against Djokovic and book a place in the second week of the US Open for just the second time in his career. The 30-year-old Briton previously reached the fourth round in New York in 2022 but has otherwise fallen at this stage twice.

This season, however, Norrie has shown progress on the biggest stages. He produced a strong fourth-round run at Roland Garros and delighted home fans with a quarter-final showing at Wimbledon. In New York, he fought past Francisco Comesaña in four sets, displaying composure and endurance. These results hint at a player who is growing in confidence, but the task ahead is arguably his toughest yet.

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Head-to-Head and Tactical Insights

Djokovic holds a commanding 6-0 record against Norrie, including two victories earlier this year. Four of those wins have come in straight sets, underlining just how one-sided the rivalry has been.

Key areas to watch:

• Djokovic’s return game: His ability to neutralize Norrie’s lefty serve has been a decisive factor in past encounters.
• Baseline exchanges: Norrie thrives on consistency and angles, but Djokovic’s superior depth and variety often wear him down.
• Mental edge: Djokovic’s aura in majors—and particularly against opponents he has dominated—has historically tilted close moments his way.

For Norrie, exploiting Djokovic’s slower starts could be his best chance. Taking risks on the forehand and pushing the pace early in sets may unsettle the Serb, though sustaining that level is another matter entirely.

Betting Outlook

According to current markets, bookmakers heavily favor Djokovic:

• Djokovic win probability: 78.47% (odds 1.10 – William Hill)
• Norrie win probability: 21.53% (odds 10.00 – 22bet)

Given Norrie’s struggles against top-10 players at majors—he has yet to win a set in such encounters this year—the odds reflect the gulf between them.

Prediction

All signs point to another Djokovic victory, and likely in emphatic fashion. His perfect record against Norrie, combined with his strong early-season form and determination to erase memories of last year’s early exit, suggest a straight-sets win is the most realistic outcome.

Predicted Scoreline: Novak Djokovic defeats Cameron Norrie 3–0 (straight sets).