Denis Shapovalov vs Learner Tien Prediction, Preview, Odds: 30/7/2025

Fresh off his recent triumph at the Los Cabos Open, Canadian tennis star Denis Shapovalov kicks off his ATP Toronto campaign this week, taking on rising American talent Learner Tien in the second round. Seeded 22nd for this Masters-level hard court event, Shapovalov will be aiming to replicate his recent dominant form as he eyes a deeper run in front of a home crowd.

Shapovalov Riding High After Los Cabos Title

Shapovalov earned a first-round bye in Toronto thanks to his seeding, giving him extra time to recover and prepare after lifting the Los Cabos trophy on July 19. His performance in Mexico was commanding—he won four straight matches without dropping a single set, securing his second hard court title of the 2025 season.

Currently ranked 30th in the live ATP standings, the 29-year-old Canadian is motivated to stay within the top 32 ahead of the US Open, where being seeded can offer a more favorable draw. If he gets past Tien, Shapovalov will face either the 16th seed Tomas Machac or American Reilly Opelka in the round of 32.

Tien Making Steady Progress on the ATP Tour

Learner Tien, just 19 years old, earned his spot in round two by defeating qualifier Colton Smith 6-4, 7-5. The American teenager is now sitting at a career-best live ranking of 60 and has been turning heads with recent performances, including a notable win over top-10 player Andrey Rublev in Washington last week.

Tien has compiled a solid 14-7 record on hard courts in 2025 and reached the quarterfinals in Acapulco earlier this year—his best result to date on the surface. While he’s showing strong potential, Tien still lacks the big-match experience that comes with years on the ATP Tour.

Match Preview and Betting Outlook

This second-round clash presents an interesting contrast: Shapovalov, a seasoned pro with recent title-winning form, against Tien, a rising youngster still finding his rhythm at the elite level. Despite Tien’s promising season, bookmakers lean toward the Canadian, giving Shapovalov a 57% probability of victory, with odds of 1.55 at Betway. Tien’s chances sit at 43%, with odds of 2.65 at Tonybet.

Key Match Facts:

• Shapovalov is coming off a title run in Los Cabos, where he didn’t drop a set.
• He has secured two ATP Tour hard court titles in 2025.
• Tien has one quarterfinal appearance on hard courts this year.
• Shapovalov is ranked 30 spots above Tien in the live rankings.

Prediction

Denis Shapovalov has rediscovered his rhythm and appears to be in peak form on hard courts. Although he hasn’t advanced past the second round in Toronto since reaching the semifinals eight years ago, his recent surge suggests a strong showing is within reach.

Tien is no pushover and has proven he can challenge established names, but this matchup may come a bit too soon in his development. Given the momentum, experience, and home support, Shapovalov is the clear favorite.

Prediction: Denis Shapovalov to win.