China Faces Demographic Time Bomb: UN Predicts Largest Population Decline

The United Nations has sounded the alarm over a drastic population decline in China by the end of this century, predicting that the country could lose more than half of its population.

According to the 2024 World Population Prospects summary from the United Nations, China’s population could shrink by 786 million people between 2024 and 2054, returning to a size comparable to the late 1950s. Japan and Russia are also expected to see declines, losing 21 million and 10 million people respectively. The report highlights Hong Kong and South Korea as having the lowest fertility rates in 2024. Additionally, it predicts that the global population will likely peak in the mid-2080s at around 8.2 billion people.

China’s population fell for the second consecutive year, dropping to 1.4097 billion. The country recorded only 9.02 million births in 2023, the lowest number since records began in 1949. In response to this demographic trend, Beijing has implemented an extensive data-monitoring system. Economists are particularly worried about the impact on China’s economic growth. A declining population means fewer workers as more people retire, which could strain government revenue and increase spending on social services.

The Economist Intelligence Unit had previously forecasted that China’s population would decrease by 20 million by 2035, further affecting the country’s long-term economic outlook. Additionally, Chinese households are expected to rise to 550 million by 2035, with the average family size decreasing from 2.62 to 2.3 people.