Brandon Nakashima vs Ben Shelton Prediction, Betting Tips, Stats: 2/8/2025

Brandon Nakashima will need to overcome a daunting personal record if he hopes to secure a place in the last 16 at the Canadian Open. The 25th seed has faced Ben Shelton four times before on hard courts — and come up short on every occasion. Their fifth meeting is set for August 2, 2025, in Toronto, with high stakes on the line at this ATP Masters 1000 event.

Shelton’s Momentum and Ranking Surge

Fourth seed Ben Shelton enters this matchup riding a wave of strong performances and sits at a career-best sixth in the live ATP rankings. A victory in Toronto could elevate him even further, potentially breaking into the top five. He reached the semi-finals in Washington just last week, continuing a strong 2025 season on hard courts, which also includes another semifinal finish earlier in the year.

In his second-round match, Shelton made quick work of Adrian Mannarino, showcasing his powerful serve and dominant baseline game. If he advances past Nakashima, he’ll face either 13th seed Flavio Cobolli or unseeded Fabian Marozsan in the fourth round.

Head-to-Head Dominance and Nakashima’s Challenge

The history between these two players heavily favors Shelton. All four of their previous meetings have taken place on hard courts, and Shelton has walked away victorious each time, conceding just one set in total. Two of those wins occurred this year — at the Australian Open and Indian Wells — reinforcing his recent superiority. Interestingly, each of their matches has featured at least one tie-break, with five in total, making a bet on a tie-break a tempting option for punters.

Nakashima, currently ranked 31st in the live rankings, earned his spot in the third round by defeating Ethan Quinn in straight sets. Though his form has been relatively solid — highlighted by a semi-final showing and a pair of quarterfinal appearances on hard courts this season — he remains a clear underdog in this encounter.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Bookmakers currently give Nakashima just a 32.69% chance of winning, with odds of 3.00, while Shelton is favored at 1.44, reflecting a 67.31% probability of victory. The odds align with their past encounters and Shelton’s current upward trajectory.

Shelton’s remarkable season places him among the ATP’s top performers in terms of ranking points accumulated, with only eight players surpassing his total so far in 2025.

Prediction

Shelton’s track record, combined with his recent form and higher ranking, makes him the clear favorite. Nakashima has yet to find a winning formula against him and managed just seven games in their most recent matchup — six of those in the first set. Unless the 23-year-old can significantly elevate his game and disrupt Shelton’s rhythm, the result appears all but certain.

Prediction: Ben Shelton to win in straight sets