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Atlético Nacional head into the first leg of the Copa Libertadores Round of 16 with a mix of hope and urgency. Under coach Javier Gandolfi, the Medellín club has shown flashes of quality but has struggled to maintain consistency.
Their recent 3–1 win over La Equidad provided a morale boost after a difficult spell in the Liga BetPlay, though key injuries could affect their plans. Right-back Andrés Román remains sidelined after a fainting episode earlier this month, increasing the pressure on attacking duo Alfredo Morelos and Kevin Viveros, with the latter recently returning from a loan spell and already finding the net.
São Paulo’s Confident Arrival
São Paulo arrive in Colombia in top form, having secured four straight victories in the Brasileirão, including a 2–1 win over Internacional. Under Hernán Crespo’s leadership, the Brazilian side has developed a disciplined, fluid playing style. Forwards André Silva, Ferreira, and Luciano have been key contributors, while the defensive pairing of Arboleda and Ferraresi has provided a solid backbone. Their depth was on display when midfielder Bobadilla scored against Inter, showing the variety of attacking threats at Crespo’s disposal.
Historical Context and Tactical Outlook
Historically, Atlético Nacional have enjoyed the upper hand in this fixture, winning three of their last five meetings against São Paulo. Their last encounter came in 2016, when the Colombian side won 2–1—a result they’ll be eager to repeat at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Expect Nacional to push forward early, using midfielders Marino Hinestroza and Edwin Cardona to control possession and disrupt São Paulo’s rhythm. Meanwhile, the visitors will likely rely on compact defending and quick transitions, aiming to strike through Ferreira or on set pieces.
Prediction
Given current form, this could be a tense and balanced match. While our narrative prediction leans toward a 2–1 home win for Atlético Nacional, both teams’ recent records suggest a cautious approach is possible. Nacional’s last 15 of 20 Copa Libertadores home matches have featured under 2.5 goals, and São Paulo have seen similar low-scoring trends in six of their last nine away fixtures.
Prediction: Atlético Nacional 0:0 São Paulo
