Antarctic Temperatures Soar 10°C Above Average in Near-Record Heatwave

Over the past month, temperatures in Antarctica, typically one of the coldest places on Earth, have averaged 10 degrees Celsius higher than normal. This significant and unusual increase is being characterized as an almost record-breaking heatwave.

The past year has seen a global trend of record-high temperatures, with monthly averages frequently exceeding the critical 1.5-degree Celsius increase over preindustrial levels, a benchmark often cited as necessary to prevent severe climate change impacts.

In Antarctica, despite temperatures remaining below freezing, the depths of the southern hemisphere’s winter have seen days where temperatures were 28 degrees Celsius higher than expected.

Michael Dukes, director of forecasting at MetDesk, emphasized that the month-long average temperature increase was more alarming than the daily highs. He pointed out that climate models have long predicted intense climate change effects in polar regions, and this situation serves as a stark example.

Dukes noted, “Usually, a single month isn’t indicative of a climate trend, but this is consistent with what models have been predicting.” He warned that such warming trends, especially in winter extending into summer, could lead to the collapse of Antarctic ice sheets.

Interestingly, this July marked the first time in 14 months that temperature records were not broken.

Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, acknowledged that the recent Antarctic heatwave significantly contributed to the global temperature spike. He explained, “Antarctica has warmed over the last 50 and 150 years, so any heatwave now starts from a higher baseline. It’s safe to say that the majority of the recent global temperature spike was due to this heatwave.”

Regarding the causes of the unusual warmth in Antarctica, the region has experienced two significant heatwaves in the past two years, with the previous one in March 2022 causing dramatic ice melt. The current increase in temperatures has been linked to a particularly strong El Niño event, which exacerbates global warming.

Additionally, some experts suggest that a rare “southern stratospheric warming event” over Antarctica might have contributed to the heatwave, although its specific impact on surface conditions remains unclear. Jonathan Wille, a researcher at ETH Zürich, noted the increasing frequency of such events but indicated that the direct influence of the climate crisis on this specific occurrence is not yet fully understood.