Is an all-out Israel-Hezbollah war inevitable?

Israeli leaders have increased their warnings to Hezbollah amid escalating cross-border violence, though experts believe that the risk of an all-out war remains limited.

### Is the violence intensifying?

Hezbollah has intensified its support for Hamas, which has been engaged in a conflict with Israel in the Gaza Strip since an unprecedented attack on southern Israel by Hamas on October 7. Recently, Hezbollah has escalated its use of drones to attack Israeli military positions, causing significant forest fires in northern Israel. On Thursday evening, Hezbollah fired anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli warplanes for the first time.

Michael Horowitz, a geopolitical analyst for Le Beck International, noted a significant increase in the number of rocket launches and the use of new, effective weapons, including kamikaze drones. Despite this, Hezbollah has not struck deep inside Israel and has used only a fraction of its arsenal, according to its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Israel has intensified strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, targeting areas close to the border and in the Bekaa Valley. Over the past eight months, the violence has resulted in at least 455 deaths in Lebanon, including around 90 civilians and nearly 300 Hezbollah fighters. On the Israeli side, at least 15 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed.

### Are the threats real?

Israeli leaders have issued increasingly aggressive statements. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned Israel’s preparedness for a “very intense operation” on the northern border. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich suggested that Israel should invade Lebanon and displace “hundreds of thousands” of Lebanese from the border area. Meanwhile, Israel’s army chief, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, asserted that Israel is “ready to go on the offensive in the north.”

Hezbollah’s deputy chief, Sheikh Naim Qassem, stated that while they do not want a full-scale war, they are prepared if one is imposed on them. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for an end to hostilities, warning of the risk of a “broader conflict with devastating consequences for the region.” Similarly, leaders from Britain, France, Germany, and the United States have urged “maximum restraint to avoid further regional escalation.”

### Preparing for war or talks?

Michael Young, an analyst at the Carnegie Center for the Middle East, suggested that both Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in “controlled escalation,” which may be more about preparing for negotiations rather than war. As the conflict in Gaza nears a possible resolution, both sides might be positioning themselves for negotiations concerning the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Horowitz mentioned that internal tensions in Israel and public opinion, influenced by the displacement of thousands of Israelis from the north, are contributing to the aggressive statements by Israeli leaders. Despite these statements, Horowitz believes Netanyahu understands the high risks of a war with Hezbollah.

The last major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 resulted in nearly 1,400 deaths over 34 days. A fragile peace was established under a UN-brokered ceasefire. Israel previously invaded Lebanon in 1982 and occupied southern Lebanon until 2000, with Hezbollah emerging as a formidable adversary.

In summary, while the rhetoric and violence have escalated, the likelihood of a full-scale war remains uncertain as both sides might be preparing for potential negotiations.