Adam Walton vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Prediction, Tips, News: 16/7/2025

After a frustrating stint on grass, Australia’s Adam Walton is aiming for a turnaround as he kicks off his Los Cabos Open campaign. Seeded eighth at this ATP 250 tournament, Walton will face local favorite Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez, who enters the draw as a wild card. The hard courts of Los Cabos might just offer Walton the reset he needs after a string of disappointing results.

Walton Looking to Regain Form on Preferred Surface

Currently ranked 97th in the ATP live rankings, Walton finds himself in search of momentum after four consecutive losses—all on grass. While he briefly pushed Carlos Alcaraz to a competitive match at Queen’s Club, the 26-year-old was unable to notch a single win during the grass court season. However, his year has looked much better on hard courts, where he’s compiled a solid 24–14 record.

Walton’s standout moments in 2025 have come at the Challenger level, where he’s captured a title and finished runner-up in another event, both on hard surfaces. He also impressed at the Miami Open earlier in the season, reaching the fourth round as a lucky loser—his best ATP-level showing to date.

Mendez Still Searching for Traction on Hard Courts

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez, currently ranked 219th in the live standings, is an up-and-coming Mexican player with a game more suited to clay. Of the 36 matches he’s played this season, 29 have come on that surface. He recently made it to the final of a Challenger clay event but has since suffered two straight defeats.

Los Cabos marks only his second ATP Tour appearance on a hard court this year. His first came in Acapulco, where he reached the quarterfinals, although that run included a walkover win against Casper Ruud. While talented, Mendez’s limited exposure to high-level hard court play could be a significant factor against a more experienced opponent like Walton.

Key Takeaways

• Walton has a 24–14 win-loss record on hard courts in 2025.
• Mendez has focused almost exclusively on clay events this year.
• Walton has won a Challenger title on hard courts and performed well in Miami.
• Mendez has just one ATP hard court win (excluding walkovers) this season.
• This is their first-ever head-to-head meeting.

Prediction

Statistically, Walton enters this contest as the slight favorite despite his recent skid. He is 122 places higher in the rankings and has significantly more match experience on hard courts this season. Mendez, in contrast, has only one ATP-level hard court win this year—discounting walkovers.

While the odds are close (Betwinner gives Walton a 49.82% chance of winning, while 22bet slightly favors Mendez at 50.18%), most indicators suggest Walton has the edge. His comfort on hard courts and experience at higher competition levels could give him the upper hand in what might still be a tight encounter.

There’s potential for a tiebreak in this matchup, especially if both players hold serve consistently in early sets. But unless Mendez delivers a career-best performance, Walton’s steady baseline game and match toughness should prevail.

This match could be closer than the rankings suggest, but Walton’s record and surface preference give him the advantage. A straight-sets win isn’t out of the question, though expect a few tense moments, particularly if Mendez finds early rhythm.

Prediction: Adam Walton to win