Gaza truce talks hit a deadlock—here’s why

Despite ongoing efforts by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar to broker peace, Hamas and Israel remain at a standoff in Gaza. As the war drags on, a proposed deal promising a six-week ceasefire and a prisoner exchange has yet to gain traction. Hamas is reviewing the proposal but hasn’t committed, while Israel criticizes Hamas for not engaging constructively. The deal also suggests increasing humanitarian aid and facilitating the return of displaced residents to Gaza.

Negotiations seem to have stalled, according to Hasni Abidi of the Geneva-based Centre for Studies and Research for the Arab and Mediterranean World, with neither side showing signs of yielding. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to demand a permanent end to Hamas’s military presence in Gaza, particularly in Rafah, which is the group’s last major stronghold and a refuge for around 1.5 million Palestinians.

The conflict, which ignited from a Hamas-initiated attack on October 7, has led to significant casualties. Israel’s retaliatory strikes have resulted in the deaths of over 33,000 people in Gaza, predominantly women and children. On the other hand, Israel has lost 260 soldiers.

While a temporary ceasefire could provide strategic advantages to Israel by allowing a regrouping of forces, particularly for a potential assault on Rafah, such a move faces domestic and international opposition due to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Netanyahu, facing pressure both internationally and from families of the Israeli hostages, finds his position increasingly precarious as he balances military objectives with diplomatic pressures, including from an exasperated U.S. President Joe Biden who continues to support Israel but demands more restraint and humanitarian efforts.

A truce could offer Hamas a symbolic win and a chance to regroup militarily, potentially enhancing its standing among Gaza’s exhausted and desperate population. However, any agreement is complicated by Netanyahu’s coalition dynamics and the broader geopolitical tensions, including recent strikes blamed on Israel in Syria which threaten to escalate regional conflicts.