PSV vs Ajax Prediction, Preview, Odds: 21/9/2025

The Philips Stadion will once again be the stage for one of the Eredivisie’s most heated encounters as PSV Eindhoven host Ajax Amsterdam in a clash that could shape the title race. Both sides sit near the summit of the table early in the 2025–26 campaign, separated by just a single point, adding extra weight to an already fierce rivalry.

PSV’s Attack Shines, but Defensive Woes Remain

Peter Bosz’s PSV have begun to find their stride after a shaky start, highlighted by a thrilling 5–3 victory over NEC Nijmegen. That result showcased their attacking prowess but also underlined vulnerabilities at the back. Ricardo Pepi’s resurgence has been a key storyline, with the American forward netting twice against NEC. Supporting him, Ruben van Bommel and Ismael Saibari have injected energy and creativity.

Saibari, fresh from an impressive international break with Morocco, continues to provide midfield spark, while captain Jerdy Schouten offers composure and balance in the center of the park. Veteran striker Luuk de Jong remains a constant goal threat, leading the line with authority. Yet questions linger over the defense, with Obispo’s selection over Flamingo and Gasiorowski raising eyebrows. Communication and positioning issues persist—problems Ajax’s pacey attackers will look to exploit.

Ajax Building Under Heitinga

Ajax, under returning coach John Heitinga, are in a period of transition but remain competitive. Their approach has been steady rather than spectacular, grinding out results such as a recent 3–1 win over PEC Zwolle. With a Champions League showdown against Inter on the horizon, Heitinga will want his side to reaffirm domestic dominance before European commitments take center stage.

New recruits like Oscar Gloukh and Raúl Moro have added freshness, while experienced figures such as Davy Klaassen and Kenneth Taylor provide stability in midfield. Up front, Wout Weghorst has started the season strongly, scoring three goals in his first five matches. Defensively, Ko Itakura and Lucas Rosa have brought grit, though Ajax’s record on the road leaves plenty to be desired.

Rivalry and Expectations

The PSV–Ajax rivalry has long been one of Dutch football’s most dramatic storylines. Earlier this year, Ajax claimed a 2–0 victory in the reverse fixture, but PSV’s unbeaten home record and attacking momentum suggest the balance may tilt this time. Wide play and set-piece opportunities could be decisive, particularly with PSV’s firepower in front of their supporters.

Ajax, however, will not make it easy. Their ability to grind out results, coupled with Weghorst’s physical presence, ensures they carry a threat. Still, PSV’s cohesion and home advantage may give them the edge in what promises to be a tense and high-tempo contest.

Prediction

Given Ajax’s poor recent away form—12 straight defeats and 13 matches without a win—the odds favor PSV. Bosz’s men have won 15 of their last 19 home league games and enter this fixture high in confidence. A victory would not only extend PSV’s unbeaten home streak but also solidify their credentials as title contenders, while testing Ajax’s ability to respond under pressure.

Prediction: PSV 3 – 1 Ajax