Lazio vs AS Roma Prediction, Preview, Odds: 21/9/2025 – Italy Serie A

The Derby della Capitale returns with both Lazio and Roma aiming to make a statement in the race for a top-four finish. While Lazio are battling injuries and restrictions in the transfer market, Roma come into the clash with renewed confidence, having bolstered their squad with fresh additions.

Lazio’s Squad Update and Challenges

Lazio will once again have to cope with absences in defense. Patric, Gigot, Lazzari, and Vecino are all unavailable through injury, but they will be boosted by the return of defensive leader Alessio Romagnoli from suspension. On the flanks, Gustav Isaksen and Adam Marušić are back in contention, adding much-needed width.

In attack, Mattia Zaccagni and Taty Castellanos—both on the scoresheet last matchday—are expected to start, while Boulaye Dia could also play a role after marking his return with a goal from the bench. Midfield stability will be provided by Matteo Guendouzi and Nicolò Rovella, who remain integral to Marco Baroni’s plans.

Restricted by a transfer ban, Lazio’s summer business was limited to making loan deals permanent. They secured the services of Nuno Tavares, Gigot, and Pellegrini in defense, along with Rovella and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru in midfield. Departures included French prospect Loum Tchaouna (to Burnley) and defender Nicolò Casale (to Bologna).

Roma’s Reinforcements and Key Players

Across the city, Roma face injury concerns of their own. Summer arrival Leon Bailey remains sidelined, while Brazilian full-back Wesley is doubtful. Still, José Mourinho’s side has plenty of firepower. Argentine winger Matías Soulé, who already opened his Serie A account, is emerging as a central figure and will likely start alongside Paulo Dybala and new striker Evan Ferguson in a dangerous attacking trio.

Midfielder Manu Koné is available after impressing on international duty, while Roma’s defense has been reshaped following the retirement of Mats Hummels and the exits of several squad players. On the incoming side, Roma invested heavily, bringing in defenders Ghilardi, Wesley, Ziolkowski, and Kostas Tsimikas, as well as Lens midfielder El Aynaoui. Offensively, they added Bailey, Ferguson, and Dortmund winger Jamie Bynoe-Gittens.

Historical Context and Tactical Battle

The derby has often been finely balanced, though recent meetings favor Roma, who have won two of the last five encounters, including a 2–0 victory in January. Lazio, however, hold a psychological advantage as they have not lost a “home” derby since 2016. That record will serve as extra motivation as Baroni’s men look to end a run of back-to-back derby defeats.

On the pitch, the game is expected to be a tactical duel. Lazio will likely press high, looking to disrupt Roma’s buildup, while Mourinho’s side will rely on compact defending and quick counters through Soulé and Dybala. The midfield battle—likely featuring Guendouzi for Lazio and Bryan Cristante for Roma—could determine the pace of the game and transitions.

Prediction

While Roma arrive with stronger form and a deeper squad, Lazio’s home record in this derby and their recent attacking form cannot be overlooked. Castellanos and Zaccagni could be decisive for the Biancocelesti, while Soulé represents Roma’s biggest threat going forward.

That said, Roma’s consistency on the road may prove telling. They have won 10 of their last 14 away league matches, while Lazio remain winless in 10 at home.

Prediction: Lazio 0 – 1 Roma