Stuttgart vs St. Pauli Prediction, Preview, News, Odds: 19/8/2025

Matchday 4 of the Bundesliga brings an intriguing contest at the MHPArena, where VfB Stuttgart take on newly promoted FC St. Pauli. Both sides have made encouraging starts to the campaign, blending attacking energy with defensive vulnerabilities, setting the stage for what could be a dramatic encounter.

Stuttgart’s Steady Progress Under Hoeneß

Sebastian Hoeneß’s Stuttgart have produced a mixed but promising start to the season. Their recent 1-0 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach showcased a more disciplined defensive display, a necessary improvement after conceding in earlier fixtures. Up front, Ermedin Demirović continues to serve as the focal point of the attack, bringing reliability and composure in the final third.

However, injuries have disrupted their momentum. Both Deniz Undav and Tiago Tomás remain sidelined, forcing Hoeneß to turn to the creativity of Jamie Leweling and Chris Führich. The duo have responded impressively, injecting pace and unpredictability into Stuttgart’s play. The challenge now is consistency, especially against a confident St. Pauli side.

St. Pauli’s Unbeaten Start Sparks Confidence

St. Pauli, guided by Alexander Blessin, arrive in Stuttgart unbeaten after three games. Their comeback 2-1 win over Augsburg highlighted their resilience and growing attacking sharpness. New signing Andréas Hountondji, brought in from Burnley, has been nothing short of transformative, scoring in each of his first three Bundesliga matches — a record-setting start for the club at this level.

Danel Sinani’s late winner last weekend underscored St. Pauli’s fighting spirit, while Blessin’s decision to stick with a consistent lineup has helped foster chemistry. The Hamburg-based club are brimming with belief and eager to prove they belong in the Bundesliga after years away from the top flight.

Key Battles to Watch

Defensively, both sides still have questions to answer. Stuttgart have conceded five goals in three matches, often caught out on counterattacks. Meanwhile, St. Pauli’s backline, led by Eric Smith and Adam Dźwigała, has been generally steady but remains prone to lapses under pressure.

The midfield duel could prove decisive. Stuttgart’s Angelo Stiller and Atakan Karazor will aim to disrupt St. Pauli’s rhythm and deny space to Sinani and Joel Chima Fujita, who have been central to the visitors’ attacking transitions. Expect Stuttgart to press high early, testing St. Pauli’s buildup, while the visitors will rely on quick counters to punish any gaps left behind.

Prediction: Stuttgart’s Home Strength to Prevail

History leans heavily in Stuttgart’s favor. They have won five of the last seven meetings with St. Pauli and remain unbeaten in 16 Bundesliga home games, with 12 victories in that span. Confidence at the MHPArena is high, and Hoeneß’s men will look to capitalize on that advantage.

St. Pauli’s form and attacking momentum make them dangerous, but their away record raises concerns — they’ve lost four of their last six away matches. Given these dynamics, Stuttgart are well-positioned to edge the contest with a commanding display.

The hosts’ attacking depth, home advantage, and defensive improvements suggest a comfortable win. St. Pauli’s early-season spark may not be enough to overcome a Stuttgart side determined to reassert themselves near the top of the Bundesliga table.

Prediction: Stuttgart 3 – 0 St. Pauli