Lithuania vs Latvia Basketball Prediction, Preview, News, Odds: 6/9/2025

Lithuania and Latvia face off in a fiery Baltic rivalry on Saturday, September 6, 2025, at the Nokia Arena in Tampere, Finland, as part of Group B in EuroBasket 2025. With tournament progression on the line, the matchup offers not only bragging rights between two neighboring nations but also a chance to gain momentum heading into the knockout stages.

Lithuania Preview

Coaching & Philosophy

Lithuania continues to operate under a well-drilled system that emphasizes structured offense, strong rebounding, and physical defense. The coaching staff has done well to integrate both younger EuroLeague talents and seasoned veterans, maintaining Lithuania’s classic identity: control the tempo, punish inside, and outwork opponents on the glass.

Tactical Breakdown

Offensively, Lithuania favors half-court execution. Their interior game is central—dominated by post touches, pick-and-roll sets, and high-low action. While not always the fastest team, they control pace deliberately, waiting for mismatches and wearing down opponents with physicality. Defensively, they run disciplined man-to-man coverage with strong rim protection and excellent rebounding fundamentals.

The rotation leans heavily on bigs and combo forwards, with impactful bench minutes from shooters and defenders. Lithuania’s end-of-game lineups feature the most experienced players, especially when protecting leads.

Injuries & Selection

There are no major injuries heading into this matchup. Lithuania is expected to field its full core lineup, with continuity and chemistry being an advantage.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Lithuania dominates on the glass and in the paint, with a high offensive rebound rate. Their only consistent vulnerability lies in defending against quicker guards and teams that shoot well from the perimeter.

Latvia Preview

Coaching & Philosophy

Latvia brings energy and cohesion, guided by a coaching staff that prioritizes fast tempo, perimeter spacing, and aggressive defense. The team often plays smaller lineups and leans on quick ball movement and transition scoring.

Tactical Breakdown

Latvia’s offense is driven by guards and wings who excel at creating off the dribble and shooting from deep. Their pace is one of the fastest in the group, and they aim to push after every rebound. Defensively, Latvia switches frequently and relies on hustle, though this sometimes leads to breakdowns in help coverage or mismatches inside.

The bench is used frequently to keep energy levels high, and Latvia’s shooting depth means they can survive scoring droughts with a couple of hot streaks.

Injuries & Selection

Latvia’s rotation is healthy but undersized. They’ll likely struggle to match Lithuania’s size and may experiment with a zone to clog the paint.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Latvia’s strength lies in perimeter shooting and fast-break execution. However, their lack of interior presence and rebounding disadvantage could cost them second-chance points and lead to fatigue late in the game.

Journey So Far

Lithuania entered the tournament as a Group B favorite and has performed with consistency, grinding out close games with disciplined team play. Latvia has battled with heart, earning a win over Sweden and nearly stealing a result from Montenegro. Both teams are still in contention for the knockout rounds, making this matchup critical.

Recent Form & Stats

Lithuania

• Last 5: W–W–L–W–W
• PPG: 82.3
• Opp PPG: 74.5
• Net Rating: +7.8
• Rebound Margin: +9.1
• 3PT %: 34.7
• TO %: 12.8

Latvia

• Last 5: L–W–L–W–L
• PPG: 76.1
• Opp PPG: 81.4
• Net Rating: –5.3
• Rebound Margin: –6.7
• 3PT %: 36.2
• TO %: 14.9

Latvia has struggled to slow teams down defensively, while Lithuania’s rebounding dominance and late-game execution have made them a tough out in every game.

Key Players to Watch

Lithuania

• Jonas Valančiūnas: Dominant inside presence, averaging 15.2 PPG and 10.3 RPG. His rebounding and screening set the tone for Lithuania’s interior play.
• Rokas Jokubaitis: A poised young guard with excellent court vision, helping Lithuania manage tempo and create in half-court situations.

Latvia

• Artūrs Žagars: A dynamic playmaker, capable of both scoring and facilitating, averaging 13.9 PPG and 5.2 APG. His quickness will be tested against Lithuania’s physical defense.
• Dairis Bertāns: Veteran sniper from beyond the arc. If he heats up, Latvia can erase deficits quickly.

What to Watch Live

• Can Latvia’s quick offense break through Lithuania’s set defense?
• Will Lithuania dominate the boards and slow the game enough to control flow?
• Bench depth: Latvia will rotate often—can they keep pace in the fourth quarter?
• Watch for early foul trouble on Latvia’s bigs. If they go small, the interior could become a battleground.

Where to Watch Live

The game will be broadcast in Europe via national basketball broadcasters and streamed on FIBA’s official digital platforms. Tip-off is scheduled for early evening local time in Tampere.

Betting Insight

Lithuania enters as a 7.5-point favorite, with the over/under set around 155.5. Given their physical edge and ability to control pace, the under may be worth considering. Latvia will need a near-perfect shooting night to stay within the spread.

Betting Verdict: Lithuania to cover –7.5 in a controlled game with limited fast-break swings.

Prediction

Lithuania’s rebounding and half-court discipline should wear down Latvia over four quarters. Expect a competitive first half with Lithuania gradually pulling away late thanks to their depth and interior dominance.

Projected Score: Lithuania 79 – Latvia 72

Tactical X-Factor: Second-chance points. Lithuania’s edge on the offensive boards could provide a crucial scoring buffer in a close game.