Novak Djokovic vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction, Tips, Odds: 1/9/2025 – ATP US Open

Seventh seed Novak Djokovic is set to face German qualifier Jan-Lennard Struff in the fourth round of the US Open, marking their fourth clash at a Grand Slam and their second at Flushing Meadows. The Serbian veteran, chasing a long-awaited return to major glory, enters this contest as the heavy favorite, but Struff’s recent surge promises to make this matchup more competitive than it looks on paper.

Djokovic Chasing Another New York Title

Djokovic has endured an unusually long drought by his standards, having failed to capture a Grand Slam title since 2023. Last season he reached only one final, and this year he has yet to go beyond the semi-finals in any major. It is his most prolonged title-less run at the Slams since the 2016–2018 period, when injuries and loss of form temporarily derailed his dominance.

A four-time champion in New York, Djokovic is determined to reclaim his crown after his shock third-round exit last year. He comes into this round fresh from a hard-fought 3–1 victory over Britain’s Cameron Norrie. With his latest win, the 24-time major champion has also climbed to sixth place in the live ATP rankings, reminding fans and rivals alike that he is still very much in the hunt for another deep run.

Struff Riding a Wave of Momentum

Jan-Lennard Struff has been one of the surprise stories of the tournament. Entering the main draw through the qualifiers, he has strung together six straight victories and toppled two seeded players along the way. His five-set thriller against 11th seed Holger Rune in the second round displayed his grit and endurance, while his commanding straight-sets win over 17th seed Frances Tiafoe in the third round proved his growing confidence.

This is only the third time in Struff’s career that he has advanced to the fourth round of a Grand Slam. His reward is not only a matchup with one of the sport’s all-time greats but also a jump of 46 spots in the live rankings, placing him inside the top 100 at No. 98.

Head-to-Head and Key Dynamics

Djokovic has dominated this rivalry historically, winning all seven of their previous encounters. Five of those wins came on hard courts, underscoring his advantage on the surface. However, Struff has been remarkably resilient in recent matches, taking at least one set in each of his last eight contests, which suggests he could push Djokovic harder than expected.

The tactical battle will revolve around Djokovic’s ability to absorb Struff’s heavy serve and baseline power. If the German can maintain a high first-serve percentage and capitalize on short rallies, he may force the Serbian into uncomfortable positions. Still, Djokovic’s superior movement, return game, and composure in key moments give him the edge.

Prediction and Betting Outlook

Bookmakers heavily favor Djokovic, assigning him nearly a 74% chance of victory, compared to Struff’s 26%. Odds currently sit at 1.16 for Djokovic and 6.15 for Struff. While Struff’s run has been remarkable, the odds reflect the uphill task he faces against a player of Djokovic’s caliber.

Prediction: Djokovic to win in four sets.