Poland vs Israel Basketball Prediction, Preview, Players, Odds: 30/8/2025 – Eurobasket 2025

On Saturday, August 30, 2025, the Spodek Arena in Katowice, Poland, will host a crucial Group D matchup between Poland and Israel, tipping off at 8:30 PM CET. As co-hosts, Poland enters with the home-court advantage and high expectations, while Israel, led by their NBA star Deni Avdija, aims to build momentum and navigate their way through a competitive group featuring France, Slovenia, Belgium, and Iceland.

Poland arrives with a balanced roster combining veteran leadership and international experience. Mateusz Ponitka anchors the team, offering scoring, rebounding, and playmaking, while naturalized guard Jordan Loyd adds perimeter shooting and savvy. The absence of Jeremy Sochan due to injury diminishes Poland’s athletic rebound and defensive versatility, but coach Igor Milicić can lean on a deep rotation including Aleksander Balcerowski in the frontcourt.

Israel leans heavily on the shoulders of Deni Avdija, who enters EuroBasket with elevated expectations after a breakout NBA campaign where he averaged over 23 points, nearly 10 rebounds, and 5 assists in March. In their opening group game, Israel edged Iceland 83–71 behind Avdija’s 20 points and Roman Sorkin’s dominant 31-point performance, demonstrating their dual offensive threat. Avdija also brings emotional and cultural commitment, emphasizing national pride over personal accolades.

This matchup centers on a contrast of styles: Poland’s cohesive team play and defensive structure versus Israel’s reliance on star-driven offense and athletic bursts. Poland will look to control tempo, forcing half-court execution and making Israel’s supporting cast earn possessions. Israel, in turn, needs Avdija to create space and involve shooters while Sorkin dominates inside to stretch Poland’s defense.

Key duels to monitor include Ponitka’s leadership against Avdija’s multidimensional impact, Loyd’s outside shooting versus Israel’s perimeter defense, and Balcerowski’s presence in the paint against Sorkin’s interior scoring.

Team insights

• Poland: Veteran-led with strong depth; missing Sochan is a blow but compensated by team structure.
• Israel: Built around Avdija’s NBA-caliber skill and Sorkin’s interior scoring threat; treating EuroBasket as a national mission.

Prediction

Poland 78 – Israel 74

Poland uses a disciplined game plan, deep rotation, and home energy to counter Israel’s offensive stars. Early execution and controlled pace give Poland a slight edge. Israel stays competitive behind Avdija’s drive and Sorkin’s finishing, but Poland’s bench resilience and second-unit defense seal a narrow win.

Tactical X-Factor: Poland’s ability to limit Israel’s transition chances and keep Avdija off the free-throw line will determine who controls the rhythm.