Iga Swiatek vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction, Stats, Standings, Odds: 12/8/2025

Third seed Iga Swiatek and 25th seed Marta Kostyuk are set to meet in the third round of the WTA Cincinnati Open, marking their second consecutive clash at this stage of the tournament and their fourth meeting overall. The winner will advance to face either Sorana Cirstea or Yuan Yue in the next round.

Head-to-Head and Recent Meetings

Swiatek holds a perfect record against Kostyuk, winning all three of their previous encounters without dropping a set. Their most recent meeting came in this same round last year, when the Polish star eased through, losing only four games on her way to a second straight semi-final appearance in Cincinnati.

The world No. 3 is already a 10-time WTA 1000 champion and is aiming to add another title to her collection at the Lindner Family Tennis Center. She opened her 2025 campaign in Cincinnati with a straight-sets victory over Anastasia Potapova, further underlining her dominant form.

Player Form and Season Overview

Iga Swiatek

• Current live ranking: No. 3
• Record in last 11 matches: 10 wins, with only four occasions conceding more than five games.
• Renowned for her ability to control rallies and maintain consistency under pressure.

Marta Kostyuk

• Making her fourth straight appearance in Cincinnati but has yet to progress past the third round.
• Recently reached the quarter-finals in Montreal, signaling a rise in form.
• 2025 record: 21–17 overall, with 14–10 on hard courts.
• Opened this tournament in dominant fashion, dropping just one game against Tatjana Maria, though she has slipped to 28th in the live rankings.

Key Match Insights

• Swiatek has never dropped more than four games to Kostyuk in their last two encounters.
• Kostyuk has yet to take a set from a WTA top 10 opponent in her last seven attempts.
• Swiatek’s form this season suggests another commanding performance is likely, especially given her history against the Ukrainian.

Odds and Prediction

According to betting markets:

• Swiatek: 82.74% chance of victory (odds 1.15 via Vbet).
• Kostyuk: 17.26% chance (odds 6.00 via Betway).

Given Swiatek’s dominance in the head-to-head, her exceptional recent form, and Kostyuk’s struggles against elite opposition, the most probable outcome is a decisive win for the Pole.

Prediction: Swiatek to cover the -5.5 games handicap, continuing her trend of straight-sets victories over Kostyuk.