Alexander Zverev vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction, Tips, Stats, Standings, Odds: 5/8/2025

The Canadian Open is heating up in Toronto as 18th seed Alexei Popyrin prepares for a quarter-final clash against top seed Alexander Zverev. Although Zverev leads their head-to-head record, Popyrin arrives with momentum — and a determination to defend the title he won last year in Montreal.

Can the Australian pull off another upset, or will the German’s consistency prevail? Here’s a detailed preview of the matchup, including key stats, recent form, and betting insights.

Popyrin Rebounds in Toronto After Struggles on Hard Court

Alexei Popyrin’s 2024 season has been far from smooth. This quarter-final appearance marks only his third of the year — and the first on a hard court. Leading into the Canadian Open, the 24-year-old had lost three straight matches on this surface, raising doubts about his form.

Yet the Australian has rediscovered his edge in Toronto. He secured gritty three-set victories over two high-profile opponents: former world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev and Danish star Holger Rune. Both wins showcased his mental toughness and ability to thrive under pressure, traits that defined his title run in Montreal last year.

With a semifinal spot on the line, Popyrin will be aiming to maintain that same level of intensity. If he wins, he’ll face either rising American Alex Michelsen or Russian veteran Karen Khachanov.

Zverev’s Path: Solid Wins, But Vulnerabilities Remain

World No. 4 Alexander Zverev enters this match as the clear favorite, holding a 3–0 career record against Popyrin, with two of those victories coming on hard courts. However, it’s worth noting that their most recent encounter on this surface took place over six years ago — a period during which both players have evolved significantly.

Zverev advanced to the quarter-finals after beating Francisco Cerundolo, whose second-set injury forced him to retire. Prior to that, the German was tested by Matteo Arnaldi, needing to rally from a set down to secure the win.

Currently ranked third in the live ATP standings, Zverev is showing solid form, but recent matches suggest he’s not cruising through the draw — and may be vulnerable if pushed into deep sets.

Betting Odds and Prediction: Over 22.5 Games Expected

Odds Snapshot (as of August 5, 2025)

• Alexander Zverev: 1.32 odds (71.74% implied probability) – via Unibet
• Alexei Popyrin: 3.60 odds (28.26% implied probability) – via William Hill

While Zverev remains the strong statistical favorite, the betting market expects a competitive match — one likely to exceed 22.5 total games.

Why Over 22.5 Games Is a Strong Pick

• Popyrin’s Last 7 Best-of-Three Matches have all gone over 22.5 games.
• 7 of his Last 8 Hard Court Matches featured at least one set ending 7–5 or 7–6.
• Zverev’s Last 5 Completed Best-of-Three Matches also exceeded the 22.5-game mark.
• 7 Tie-Breaks have been played in Zverev’s last 4 non-retirement matches.

These trends point toward a closely contested battle, potentially featuring one or more tie-breaks — a format that typically results in longer match totals.

Prediction

Although Zverev has a flawless head-to-head record against Popyrin, their last meaningful encounter on a hard court was years ago — and the current context is very different. Popyrin is showing signs of resurgence and won’t surrender his Canadian Open crown easily.

Both players have recent histories of extended matches, making over 22.5 games a logical and statistically backed prediction. Bettors may also consider side markets like “at least one tie-break,” given the serving strength and recent patterns of both competitors.

Prediction: Over 22.5 total games to be played