Following a recent escalation with Israel, Hezbollah is conducting a reassessment of its long-term military posture. Sources familiar with internal deliberations report that the group may reduce its overt presence as an armed organization, although it is not expected to relinquish its weapons entirely.
The reassessment appears to be driven by a growing belief within Hezbollah that the scale and visibility of its current arsenal may have become more of a strategic burden than an advantage. Notably, discussions are said to focus on the potential partial transfer of key weapon systems—particularly its missile and drone stockpiles—under certain security guarantees.
Conditional Disarmament and Retained Capabilities
Hezbollah is reportedly considering surrendering some of its heavier weaponry, especially the long-range missiles and unmanned aerial systems perceived as the most significant threats by Israel. However, any move in this direction is likely to come with stipulations. The group is understood to be demanding an Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanese territory and a cessation of future aerial or ground attacks as prerequisites.
Despite exploring these options, Hezbollah does not intend to fully demilitarize. Internal assessments suggest the group aims to maintain its capacity for localized resistance, particularly through the retention of lighter firearms and anti-tank weaponry. This would enable it to continue defensive operations if necessary, without provoking large-scale confrontations.