City-Killer Asteroid Could Fire Meteorites at Earth by 2032

In the coming years, Earth is expected to experience two notable asteroid events: the close approach of asteroid 99942 Apophis in 2029 and the potential lunar impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032.

Asteroid 99942 Apophis, measuring approximately 375 meters in diameter, is projected to pass within 31,600 kilometers of Earth’s surface on April 13, 2029. This distance is closer than many geostationary satellites, making it one of the closest approaches by a large asteroid in recorded history. During its flyby, Apophis is expected to be visible to the naked eye from parts of Europe, Africa, and Asia, appearing as a bright moving point in the night sky.

Initially, Apophis was considered a potential threat, with early observations in 2004 suggesting a possibility of Earth impact. However, subsequent analyses have ruled out any significant risk of collision for at least the next century. The 2029 flyby presents a unique opportunity for scientists to study the asteroid’s composition, structure, and orbital dynamics. NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission plans to rendezvous with Apophis shortly after its close approach to conduct detailed observations.

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Potential Lunar Impact in 2032

Discovered in late 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4, approximately 60 meters wide, was initially assessed to have a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth in 2032. Further observations have since reduced this probability to 0.0017%. However, the likelihood of YR4 colliding with the Moon has increased to approximately 4.3%, with a potential impact date of December 22, 2032.

Should YR4 strike the Moon, the collision could eject up to 100 million kilograms of lunar debris into space. A portion of this material might enter Earth’s orbit, posing risks to satellites and other space infrastructure. The debris could also result in a meteor shower visible from Earth.

Advancements in Planetary Defense

These upcoming events underscore the importance of planetary defense initiatives. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in 2022 successfully altered the trajectory of asteroid Dimorphos, demonstrating the feasibility of asteroid deflection. The European Space Agency’s Hera mission, set to launch in 2024, aims to study the aftermath of the DART impact to further understand deflection techniques.

Additionally, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile, operational since 2025, is expected to significantly enhance the detection of near-Earth objects, potentially tripling the number of known asteroids over the next decade. NASA’s upcoming NEO Surveyor mission, equipped with infrared detectors, will further aid in identifying and tracking potentially hazardous asteroids.

While the immediate threat from Apophis and YR4 appears minimal, these events highlight the necessity of continued vigilance and preparedness in monitoring near-Earth objects to safeguard our planet.