Peru vs Ecuador Prediction, Preview, News, Lineups: 11/6/2025

Peru is set to host Ecuador in a crucial CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifier at the Estadio Nacional in Lima on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. As matchday 16 of the qualification campaign unfolds, both nations enter the fixture with contrasting ambitions and current standings. While Ecuador sits comfortably in second place with 24 points, Peru languishes in ninth, having accumulated just 10 points from 14 matches.

Peru Overview

Peru, needing a win to remain within reach of an intercontinental playoff spot, faces an uphill battle against a visiting side that has demonstrated consistency throughout the campaign. Ecuador, by contrast, seeks to tighten its grip on an automatic qualification position with another strong performance on the road.

Peru’s campaign has been underwhelming, with only two victories and a goal tally of six from 14 matches. The team’s struggles are evident in a goal difference of -11 and a record that includes eight defeats. Despite these figures, recent performances show marginal improvements. In their last five matches across all competitions, Peru has secured one win, two draws, and two losses. Most recently, they played to a goalless draw away to Colombia—a result viewed as a defensive success.

Their home form, while not dominant, offers a glimmer of hope. Peru has earned two wins and three draws from seven home matches, suggesting that playing in front of home supporters could be a key factor against Ecuador.

Ecuador Overview

On the other side, Ecuador has emerged as one of the most consistent sides in the region. With seven wins and only two losses, they have conceded a mere five goals throughout the qualification campaign, highlighting a disciplined and organized defense. Their recent draw against Brazil further underscored their capability to hold top-tier opponents at bay.

Ecuador’s away record includes two victories, three draws, and two defeats, which signals a balanced approach on foreign soil. They remain unbeaten in their last five matches, including three wins, solidifying their reputation as a compact and difficult team to break down.

Sebastián Beccacece, leading Ecuador’s technical team, has instilled a tactical structure focused on solid defense and rapid transitions. His squad has been effective in frustrating opposing attacks and capitalizing on counter-attack scenarios—attributes that will serve them well in Lima.

Head-to-Head Record and Historical Trends

The most recent meeting between the two teams ended in a 1-0 win for Ecuador, underlining their slight upper hand in the rivalry. Over their last five encounters, Ecuador has secured two wins, Peru one, with two matches ending in draws. These figures suggest a competitive edge for Ecuador, though Peru’s home advantage could level the playing field.

Both sides are accustomed to narrow margins when they meet, and recent history suggests another close contest is likely.

Odds and Betting Insight

In terms of betting markets, the odds reflect a closely balanced encounter. The odds for a home win for Peru are currently priced at 2.97, while an Ecuador victory is offered at 2.76. A draw, which appears increasingly plausible given both teams’ recent form, is valued at 3.10.

In the “Both Teams to Score” market, “No” is currently favored at 1.66, based on Ecuador’s strong defense and Peru’s limited scoring output. Conversely, backing “Yes” in this market yields odds of 2.17, though recent results suggest this is less likely.

Given the high stakes and Ecuador’s defensive resilience, the expectation is for a low-scoring affair. For bettors seeking value, a wager on a draw or Peru +0.5 in the Asian handicap market may offer reasonable returns. Ecuador’s track record of grinding out results, especially on the road, supports a conservative betting approach.

Prediction

Although Ecuador enters as the stronger side on paper, Peru’s desperation for points and the backing of a home crowd make them a dangerous opponent. With qualification hopes diminishing, Peru will be motivated to fight for every opportunity, especially in a fixture that could determine the trajectory of their campaign.

Given the defensive profiles of both teams and the tendency for South American qualifiers to be tightly contested, a scoreless draw appears a realistic outcome. Ecuador’s priority will likely be to maintain their unbeaten streak and edge closer to securing a World Cup berth, while Peru must aim for at least a point to remain in the conversation.

Prediction: Peru 0–0 Ecuador